Sino-US ties in the Trump era

More optimism than pessimism?

Professor Dr Li Xiguang, the top media expert of the Communist Party of China, believes the upcoming new world order does not require a unified culture and belief

With the swearing in of president-elect Donald Trump scheduled forFriday, Jan20, policymakers in Washington and Beijing are contemplating how to carry forward the bilateral relationship between the world’s two biggest economies.

It was actually Donald Trump himself who stirred up controversies during his election campaign, vowing to review Sino-US relations. Under a well-orchestrated media drive, Trump kept sending mixed signals on China, addressing the concerns and aspirations of domestic and international audience.

The hawkish US media has been painting a doomsday scenario for China-US ties while Trump occupies the White House. During the campaign Trump rebuked China’s trade policies, perhaps to send a signal to hardliners in the US business industry who have been hit badly due to the successful capture of the world market by the Chinese diaspora.

Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign stoked tensions between Beijing and Washington especially in the backdrop of the Asia Pivot strategy and threats of blocking Chinese goods in the US market.

However, with the dust settling in after election, positive signals are emanating from Trump’s camp. US policy makers must understand that China is no longer an international light weight, but rather an economic giant which Washington can neither ignore nor subdue.

During a recent trip to Beijing, I had the opportunity to discuss the future relations between the US and China with numerous Chinese officials. I noted with astonishment that despite fears and concerns being expressed globally, officials in China look optimistic about a good working relationship between president-elect Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The reason is the trust of Chinese people in the wisdom of its leadership, especially President Xi Jinping, who has risen as the only distinctive leader after Chairman Mao.

Professor Dr Li Xiguang, the top media expert of the Communist Party of China, believes the upcoming new world order does not require a unified culture and belief.

“Today everyone is asking what will be the next most inspiring story for the coming century after new liberalism was defeated in recent American elections and the end of the old narrative?” he says. However, the Chinese visionary says that China and US would have to work without harming each other.

“All people travelling on the road do not collide with and harm each other. The new world order is just like the heaven and the earth which bears all things,” he said. Prof Li says things grow together without prejudice to each other.

“All the road runs parallel and there’s no conflict. The road which is a common road for all is Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),” he says referring to China’s initiative to link the world under its vision of regional and global connectivity for shared economic gains.

Keeping in view the mutual economic interests of both countries, I believe even Sino-US cooperation will augment further as President Donald Trump himself is a businessman

Away from whatever claims were made during the electioneering process in the US, this however seems that this is what exactly happened with the Trump team. In an apparent bid to comfort Beijing, Trump recently announced to assign Iowa governor, Terry Branstad, as his ambassador to China. Branstad is regarded by many as “an old friend of China”. But a lot needs to be done to build trust between the US and China.

Moreover, China has been persistent in its effort to maintain good relations with the US administration despite some isolated incidents in the South China Sea.

Since 2015, the overall relationship between China and the United States has remained stable and even made new progress in some areas. The two countries have maintained close contacts at the leadership and staff levels.

President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to the US at the invitation of President Barack Obama in September 2015. He met him again during the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in November the same year. Again in late March 2016, the two presidents had a successful meeting during the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington.

In September, both leaders met again during the G20 Hangzhou Summit and committed to building a new model of a major-country relationship.

Premier Li Keqiang also met President Obama at the 71st Session of the UN General Assembly. In June the same year, the Eighth Round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue took place, followed by the Seventh China-US High-Level Consultation on People-to-People Exchanges; and the Second China-US High-Level Joint Dialogue on Cybercrime and Related Issues also held in Beijing. These meetings were fruitful too.

In addition, the two countries have made steady progress in practical cooperation in various fields, and maintained close communication and coordination on major regional and global issues like climate change, the Korean and Iranian nuclear issues, Syria, and Afghanistan.

The two countries also took up contentious but thorny issue too. Both have maintained communication and coordination in the field of Asia-Pacific affairs through bilateral exchanges and relevant mechanisms at all levels and agreed to build a bilateral relationship of positive interaction and inclusive cooperation in the region.

The two countries have stayed in a state of communication and cooperation on regional and global affairs, including climate change, counter-terrorism, marine environmental protection, combating wild life smuggling, and disaster prevention and reduction within multilateral frameworks such as APEC, East Asia Summit (EAS), and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).

Moreover, the two sides have smoothly carried out trilateral personnel and agriculture training cooperation projects in Afghanistan and Timor-Leste.

China-US military relations have generally maintained a momentum of steady progress. Since 2015 the two militaries have continued to improve their two mutual-confidence-building mechanisms: the Mutual Notification of Major Military Activities and the Rules of Behavior for the Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters.

In 2015 they held their Joint Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster-Relief Field Exercise and Disaster Management Exchanges in China and the US, respectively, and participated in Khaan Quest 2015 multinational peacekeeping military exercise and Exercise Kowari, a China-US-Australia trilateral military exercise.

In January 2016, a working meeting of officials from the two ministries of defence was held in Beijing, and in May a video conference was held between the Chinese Chief of the Department of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Central Military Commission and the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

From late June to early August 2016, Chinese Navy Fleet 153 participated in RIMPAC 2016, a joint military exercise in Hawaii. In July and August the same year, the US Chief of Naval Operations and Chief of Staff of the Army each made a visit to China.

A high-ranking official in the ministry of foreign affairs told this scribe that China was willing to promote the sustainable, sound and stable advance of bilateral relations, and work with the new US administration to follow the principles of no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and mutually beneficial cooperation with US.

“While President Trump takes office, we want to increase cooperation in bilateral, regional and global affairs, manage and control divergences in a constructive way, and further bilateral relations from a new starting point, so as to bring benefits to the two peoples and other peoples around the world,” the official maintained.

Mr Fun Jun, assistant professor at NUML University, Islamabad, reciprocates the same vibe coming out from Beijing.

“Though there is a lot of talk over the fate of US-China relations, I believe the ties will gradually improve. Keeping in view the mutual economic interests of both countries, I believe even Sino-US cooperation will augment further as President Donald Trump himself is a businessman,” he added.

Mr Fu Jun says Beijing and Washington need each other and both even complement over global issues.

“China believes President Xi Jinping, with his wise and farsighted approach, would get China through the rough waters. Yes, both China and US would have to make some policy adjustments to accommodate each other’s concerns,” he added.

He says President Xi had already taken some very visionary steps to help materialise the Chinese dream and hopefully by 2049, China would have become a developed nation.