Not a bed of roses
Bilawal Bhutto, in his relatively brief stint in politics, has emerged as a fierce critic of the Sharifs. Unlike his father, who sounds more diplomatic and conciliatory in his utterances, the younger Bhutto does not seem to be in the habit of mincing his words
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif seems to be happy and somewhat relieved on return of the PPP (Pakistan Peoples Party) co-chairman from 18 months of self-imposed exile. But with a caveat: Asif Ali Zardari should take the affairs of the party in his own hands.
On the face of it Sharif’s advice seems rather odd. Ostensibly it’s nobody’s business except Zardari’s how he runs the affairs of his own party. It’s like the co-chairperson or his prodigal Bilawal advising the PML–N supremo to organise his party sans Shahbaz Sharif or Chaudhry Nisar Khan just because they are known to adopt a consistent hard-line against the PPP.
Bilawal Bhutto, in his relatively brief stint in politics, has emerged as a fierce critic of the Sharifs. Unlike his father, who sounds more diplomatic and conciliatory in his utterances, the younger Bhutto does not seem to be in the habit of mincing his words.
Perhaps this good cop bad cop charade is more strategic than tactical. The elder Sharif rarely lambastes his opponents. His interior minister and the rest of the lot perform this job quite effectively. Similarly Zardari has left the tough talking to his son who like his late mother and grandfather seems to revel in expressing himself in witty double entendres.
Apart from his relations with the Sharifs, Zardari has bigger issues confronting his party. Election year is round the corner. Despite the hype created by Bilawal during his recent prolonged stay in Lahore, the Party remains in shambles in the Punjab.
Pakistan’s largest province is the jewel in the crown. Whichever party realistically wants to rule at the federal level needs to make substantial showing in Punjab in the general elections.
In the 2013 elections the Party that had ruled for five years in Islamabad and Sindh was trounced in the province. Since 2008 Shahbaz Sharif has held his grip firm through a mixture of sheer hard work, tenacity and political shrewdness.
It will not be easy to dislodge the Sharifs from their citadel. Orange train, Metro bus, highways and road networks and soon to be completed mega power projects might be pooh-poohed by the opposition for lack of transparency in building them. Nonetheless the PML-N expects that they will bring them great dividends in terms of votes and support.
In any case it is no longer going to be a two-way fight in Punjab. The PTI (Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf) is a strong contender. Since the 2013 elections it has already replaced the PPP as the second largest vote catcher after PML-N in the province. In various by-elections for National and Provincial Assembly seats from Punjab the PPP has fared as a poor third.
In the coming triumvirate fight the PPP leadership will have to struggle really hard. Time is not on their side. Their opponents are already girding for the big fight.
The Sharifs throughout their tenure are perennially on the campaign trail. Sweeping elections for heads of local government will further embolden them.
Post Zardari’s return, he is not expected to adopt the same benign attitude towards the Sharifs that had become his hallmark before he went into exile. The PPP co-chairperson rightfully takes the credit for bailing out the PML-N government during Imran Khan’s 2014 dharna.
He feels that when the military leadership under General Raheel Sharif tightened the screws on him, Sharif simply looked the other way. Naturally Zardari felt abandoned and ditched by him. He conveyed his displeasure by avoiding meeting the prime minister throughout the longish period he was in London for his heart bypass surgery.
After a meeting with finance minister and Sharif consort Ishaq Dar and a few with Maulana Fazlur Rahman some months back, the ice has somehow melted. Nonetheless the honeymoon period that Sharif and Zardari enjoyed is not going to be reenacted under the changed circumstances.
Technically they might get away with murder but politically Panamagate has somewhat inexorably damaged the Sharif brand. The PML-N reckons that the scandal will not cost them votes in the next elections.
However the Panamagate probe does provide the opposition with a rallying point to coalesce. After a prolonged slugfest between the PPP and the PTI with name calling from both sides, a tenuous ceasefire is in place.
But on the other hand Nisar Ali Khan continues to attack Bilawal and vice versa. Perhaps his boss cannot rein in his egomaniac interior minister? Despite Nawaz Sharif reminding Zardari about the befitting manner in which he bid farewell to him from the presidency, matters are bound to heat up between the two protagonists.
Since Zardari left 18 months ago politics in some ways has changed. After successfully seeing the back of General Raheel Sharif, Nawaz Sharif feels somewhat more confident. The pincer movement of the erstwhile military leadership and the ISI and the ISPR against him is over at least for the time being.
Less encumbered by a recalcitrant military leadership and the Panama probe in the doldrums for the time being, Sharif is showing his true colours. Doing away with regulatory bodies with one stroke of pen by bypassing the CCI (Council of Common Interests) betrays a bravado hitherto lacking.
It is obvious that the government does not believe in any kind of checks and balances that come in its way. In order to manipulate gas and power tariffs before election time it intends to cut every corner.
This is the charitable view. In the absence of a regulatory mechanism any transparency in mega deals goes down the tube.
Perhaps the PPP co-chairperson is expected to put his enormous deal making skills to good use to bring the opposition on board on some form of a grand alliance to confront the government
Similarly NAB (National Accountability Bureau), that is laterally mandated to nab the corrupt, in a landmark plea bargain deal has stooped to the lowest of lows. Former Balochistan finance secretary who according to NAB itself siphoned off Rs40 billion from the provincial exchequer has walked away scot-free after agreeing to pay Rs3 billion. This certainly sets new standards of highway robbery.
In this backdrop the formidable Sharif machine — more akin to the giant robots that destroy everything in their way in the Hollywood franchise ‘The Transformers’ — seems unstoppable. It will destroy everything that tries to stop it from grabbing the coveted prize. All in the name of democracy, of course.
A more confidant Sharif is expected to strike a hard bargain on Bilawal’s four-point ultimatum. Not only Zardari/ Bilawal duo but also the opposition at large will have to get its act together to confront the PML-N behemoth. Perhaps the PPP co-chairperson is expected to put his enormous deal making skills to good use to bring the opposition on board on some form of a grand alliance to confront the government.
Perhaps it’s too late? But in politics it’s never too late.
The Rangers raid on Zardari’s close associate and business partner Anwer Majid’s offices in Karachi is ominous. Perhaps they want to convey the message to the PPP co-chairperson: he will have to face the music despite the recent change of guards.
