Could things get messy in the months ahead?
Islamabad’s action or inaction against militants based in the country’s tribal and urban areas is likely to become the first talking point when the new administration comes in the White House
Generally, a marked confusion has defined the United States and Pakistan’s bilateral relations. Historically, although there were multiple phases of intense bilateral engagement and disengagement, mainly the association has been characterised as the one based on mutual distrust and manipulation.
This prevailing disorientation in bilateral relations is likely to continue under the incoming administration of Donald Trump. In fact, Pakistan should expect to see Washington getting tougher with Islamabad unless the former delivers in some strategic areas that have undermined the US’s security interests in the region.
There are two major policy actions that can define Pakistan’s relations with the Trump administration. First, Islamabad’s action or inaction against militants based in the country’s tribal and urban areas is likely to become the first talking point when the new administration comes in the White House. Second, the new administration would be interested in securing Pakistan’s cooperation in Afghanistan to culminate the decade’s long civil war in the country.
So far, however, Pakistan has not acted decisively around any of these goals. Pakistan’s promises of action against all militant groups have not found ears anywhere. In this regard, the US’s demands of action against the Haqqani network have continued persistently even after Pakistan’s two year long military campaign that has promised to eliminate all major terrorist groups from the country. A few weeks ago, the US again urged Pakistan towards taking effective actions against the Haqqani network that the former believes continues to operate from Pakistan.
Besides Haqqani network, the second question that Pakistan should expect to face from Washington is the unaddressed presence of the Afghan Taliban’s leadership in Pakistan. When it comes to action against Afghan Taliban, the new administration is not going to be as soft as the outgoing Obama administration may have been. While it’s likely that in the coming months, the US would aggressively pursue counter insurgency measures in Afghanistan, the new administration is not going to appreciate roadblocks in this regard that have largely been blamed on Pakistan in the form of militant’s ability to find shelters in the country. The Afghan president’s recent statement that Afghan Taliban wouldn’t last a month if it was not for Pakistan’s support was – among other things – an attempt to attract the administration’s attention in Washington.
Connected with these challenges is New Dehli’s already growing closeness with the Trump administration which can prove costly for Pakistan’s interests in Washington and elsewhere. Thus far, Trump’s team has held numerous high profile meetings with the Indian business and political community. It’s likely that both countries military –a week ago, the US designated India as its major defense partner – and commercial ties under the new administration would further proliferate. On the other hand, however, Pakistan’s overblown and pretentious effort to make public a phone call between the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Donald Trump only reflects Islamabad’s nervousness and weakened position where it is even willing to rely on an ingratiating conversation to reject calls for the anticipated tough relations under the Trump administration. The flawed conversation between Prime Minister Sharif and Trump was even rejected by the latter’s transition team that released its own version of the call saying that while the conversation was ‘productive,’ it lacked the ‘flowery language’ which was dominant in Pakistan’s version of the talk.
The embarrassing act was further heighted by the Pakistani civilian government by sending an official envoy to meet Trump’s transition team: even after a week, the Pakistani delegation present in Washington has not been able to get inside the Trump Tower while the president elect daily meets the Indian executives from the Silicon valley.
In effect, Trump can use number of policy options to toughen its stance towards Pakistan including the culmination of military and economic packages’ that Pakistan receives from the US. A far as Pakistan and the US’s bilateral relations are concerned, things are likely to get messy in the next few months for the former is improbable to act decisively against militant groups that target the Indian and Afghan interests which are directly and indirectly linked with Washington own interests in the region.
In effect, Trump can use number of policy options to toughen its stance towards Pakistan including the culmination of military and economic packages’ that Pakistan receives from the US
Despite all of this gloom, we might see some surprising actions from the new government in Washington which also involves the US looking at Pakistan as a strategic partner which is more than just a helper to resolve US’s own security mess in Afghanistan and elsewhere. The US’s collaboration with Pakistan has hardly extended beyond the element of security and unless Washington commits to Islamabad’s own stability and economic growth, the bilateral mistrust would continue to loom large.
Above all, Pakistan should look forward to devising practical policies to deal with the new administration rather than relying on bizarre phone conversations for India’s public diplomacy is going to be at its best when it comes to undermining Pakistan’s lobbying efforts and interests in Washington.
