Like, why was there an Indian sub lurking in Pakistani waters?
Two weeks back, Pakistan Navy (PN) stated that it had prevented Indian Navy submarines from entering Pakistani territorial waters. According to the official report, the Indian Navy (IN), in order to fulfill its nefarious designs, was deploying submarines. PN, ever alert and using its extremely professional skill, prevented Indian submarines from entering Pakistani waters. Reportedly, the unsuspecting submarine was detected, localised south of Pakistani coast and forced to flee. Apparently, the IN sub was detected when it came up to the surface to recharge its batteries which may have become exhausted. Subs are required to rise up to periscope depth to recharge their batteries.
It is no coincidence that the IN sub was caught lurking in Pakistani waters on the same date that the first cargo ships were setting sail from Gawadar, carrying a shipload, which had been brought in the shape of a convoy from Kashgar. The event marked the accomplishment of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) pilot project. The IN sub must have been dispatched to snoop on the progress of CPEC, which India has gone to great lengths to sabotage and fail even before it was operationalised. The arrest of senior RAW operative Commander Kulbhoshan Yadav, earlier this year had spilled the beans on Indian machinations in Balochistan. The incarcerated Indian spy not only confessed to establishing a network to sabotage CPEC, but also provided graphic details of how his network managed to entrap Baloch youth, lead them to the path of insurgency through sedition, train them in subversion, arm, equip and launch them to wreak havoc in the strife torn province of Balochistan. The aim was to disrupt CPEC as well as discourage the Chinese engineers, investors and experts to quit the project and also stay away from Balochistan and Gawadar.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his Independence Day address, admitted to supporting the so called separatist movement in Balochistan. This left no doubts to India’s odious plot.
The real reason for the IN sub trying to infiltrate in Pakistani waters became obvious when the media carried reports of Chinese Navy ships docking at Gawadar. India has long been wary of Chinese naval presence in Gawadar, which is not only a deep sea port but is strategically located in the Arabian Sea. The bulk of Indian fuel supply from the Gulf countries passes adjacent to Gawadar. India perceives this as a threat and believes that it could enable China to choke Indian fuel supply and its cargo passing in the sea lanes of communication (SLOC) near Gawadar.
It is possible that Indian intelligence sources had provided it advance warning of the Chinese Naval vessels approaching Gawadar and the IN sub was prying for more information.
Former Indian diplomat, MK Bhadrakumar, currently a columnist and analyst, in his recent Op-Ed ‘Chinese naval ships at Gwadar port call for a rethink of India’s regional policy’ has made an interesting assessment of the situation and rendered some invaluable advice to Indian foreign policy mandarins.
The seasoned Indian external affairs expert gives the impression that the presence of the Chinese naval vessels at Gwadar was “startling news for India”. He does admit that India would have had some intelligence tip-off, which probably explains the mysterious episode on November 14 of an Indian submarine lurking in the vicinity of Pakistani territorial waters. It was brusquely shooed away by the Pakistan Navy.
The recently concluded bilateral exercise between PN and the Peoples Liberation Army-Navy should have been a pointer in this direction. The joint maneuvers encompassing harbour and sea phases conducted in the North Arabian Sea depict the need for intense naval collaboration between PN and PLA (Navy) in the backdrop of the CPEC, in order to effectively handle complex challenges in the maritime domain. Little wonder then that the sea phase of the exercise covered a wide spectrum of maritime and naval operations performed by ships, helicopters, maritime patrol aircraft, joint boarding operations by special forces, air defence exercises, communication drills and joint maneuvers by the surface combatants.
There should be no qualms about Chinese and Pakistani naval forces cooperating to safeguard the CPEC in which China is investing more than 45 billion US Dollars.
It is unfortunate for India that it spurned the Chinese offer to participate in the CPEC and instead tried to disrupt it. It went to the extent of investing heavily in the Iranian port of Chabahar and even in constructing a highway, the Delaram-Zaranj Highway, a 218 km roadway in the Nimruz Province of Afghanistan connecting the Delaram District in Afghanistan to the northern border of Iran. The aim was to provide Afghanistan and the Central Asian States an alternate to CPEC and Gawadar. Regrettably for India, Iranian President approached the Pakistani Prime Minister and requested for Iran to join the CPEC.
According to Bhadrakumar and some other media reports, earlier in November, Gawadar also received Russia’s Federal Security Services chief Alexander Bogdanov. The former diplomat claims that it was a hush-hush inspection tour aimed at assessing the efficacy of Russian ships using the port during their long voyages, to assert Moscow’s return to the global stage. Bhadrakumar asserts that this is the first visit by a Russian spy chief to Pakistan in over two decades and it took place just as America elected a new president, Donald Trump. He believes that perhaps the timing is coincidental, but more likely, it is not. The Russian diplomacy invariably moves in lockstep. He stresses that Bogdanov’s visit was scheduled just a few weeks before the planned trilateral strategic dialogue between Russia, China and Pakistan, ostensibly regarding the Afghan situation, in Moscow next month. He surmises that Bogdanov reportedly sought a formal Russian-Pakistani collaborative tie-up over the CPEC.
Russia has denied it but the writing on the wall for India is clear. By trying to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds, India appears to be alienating its erstwhile ally Russia by cozying up to the US. India was snubbed on its home turf Goa at the BRICS summit when it tried to browbeat Pakistan but was tersely ignored by both China and Russia. Russian support to Pakistan’s entry in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Russia holding its first ever military ever joint military exercise with Pakistan despite India’s request to call them off in the wake of the Uri attack, for which India blamed Pakistan, should be an eye opener for India.
The advice that comes from India’s former diplomat Bhadrakumar in the wake of the developments enumerated above, which hold profound implications for India, especially against the backdrop of the unraveling of the United States’ pivot strategy in the Asia-Pacific, is that some hard conclusions need to be made. India should reconsider its animosity towards the CPEC and President Xi Jinping’s “One Belt One Road” project, which includes the Maritime Silk Route since it can benefit immensely from these initiatives. New ground realities and alliances are emerging, if India is left out of the loop, it will be the loser. Narendra Modi will have to put his extremism under control and call off the dogs of war unleashed on Pakistan. The sooner India takes cognizance of these harsh realities, the better it will be for the entire region.
