And a polity divided
Unfortunately Nawaz Sharif has disappointed many by his self-serving style of governance. He has effectively filibustered the Panamagate probe for the past six months. Perhaps the opposition was also unrealistically asking for Nawaz specific TORs and Imran demanding his resignation
Even a cursory look at the 24/7 news cycle gives the distinct impression that at least politically the country is imploding from within. Apart from the gauntlet thrown at the Sharifs by the PTI chief to shutdown Islamabad through a siege on 2 November, politicians of all hues and colours seem to be at each other throats.
Take the case of the erstwhile MQM. It now stands divided in several groups and sub-groups.
The latest spat between the perennial governor of Sindh Ishrat ul Abad and head of a break away party from MQM the Pak Sarzameen Party’s (PSP) Mustafa Kamal is most interesting. Both Ishrat and Mustafa, erstwhile fellow travellers as foot soldiers of Altaf Hussain, are now accusing each other of all sorts of things ranging from corruption, murder and arson.
Both are probably speaking the truth about each other. No one in his right mind in the MQM could afford to defy the orders of the Supremo and his thugs based in London. As a result Karachi became a living hell in the past more than two decades since the MQM came on the scene.
It’s only in the last three years that the MQM’s back has been broken. The credit goes to the federal government, the provincial government and the military for flushing out the mega polis of criminal elements in the garb of politicians.
Not that the mafias operating in Karachi have been completely eliminated. But a lot has been done.
The icing on the cake however is the fragmentation of the MQM. It has split up essentially into five groups. After Altaf Husain’s fulminations on 22 August from London, the rump of the MQM parliamentarians under the leadership of Dr Farooq Sattar were left with no option but to form the MQM Pakistan simply for self-preservation.
As was evident from the mini show of strength in Karachi by those loyal to Altaf Hussain recently, MQM London is also very much alive. So much for the so called ‘minus one formula’.
PSP, headed by the ex-mayor of Karachi, was a split that came earlier than the MQM Pakistan. However the Sindh governor does not see eye to eye with Kamal and his cohorts. A few months back speaking privately to a few media persons he termed the outfit as a clone of the establishment.
Perhaps Abad harbours his own ambitions to lead the MQM. But essentially MQM’s vote bank has split. And its power to shut down Karachi and wreak havoc in the mega polis no longer exists.
This is essentially not a bad thing. The MQM operated more like a mafia outfit than a political party. Now its various factions will have to appeal to the electorate through political means rather than through fear and intimidation.
The war of words between Abad and Kamal seems like a tea party as compared to Imran Khan’s credible threat to choke Islamabad on 2 November. Both the PTI and the PML-N have welcomed the apex court issuing notices to Nawaz Sharif and his family members over Panama Papers probe.
The apex court will decide about the maintainability of various petitions putting the Sharifs in the dock for alleged corruption and money laundering. In the meanwhile the Khan has rejected calls to postpone his siege and has decided to go ahead with his plans with full fervour.
And why not? Imran Khan and his kitchen cabinet see it as their last chance before 2018 elections to oust the Sharif clan through street power.
His detractors allege — not entirely without justification — that unless the army is drawn into the conflict Sharif will not budge. The Khan has perhaps calculated that without a General Waheed style goodbye to the Sharif government by General Raheel Sharif and setting up of a military backed interim government to clean up the Augean stables, it will be impossible to dislodge the PML-N.
Imran Khan on numerous occasions has likened the Sharifs to a mafia outfit. He actually believes that despite being the biggest crowd puller he cannot win in constituency politics from the PML-N party machine. The PTI, losing virtually all by-electionsin Punjab in the past three years, is perhaps a testament to this stark reality.
Hence unless the Sharifs, Zardari and a few others are blackballed in the name of accountability Khan will not be the next prime minister according to this logic. However the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
First of allGeneral Raheel Sharif is no coupster. And bending if not actually trampling over the constitution at the virtual end of his tether will not be a wise move for him.
But perhaps Imran Khan wants to draw in the reluctant soldier by creating a situation where they have no option but to intervene. This is the kind of situation created by a Bonapartist General Zia ul Haq in cahoots with the PNA (Pakistan National Alliance) in 1977 to ultimately oust the beleaguered Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.
But as soon as Bhutto was hanged by General Zia ul Haq, the PNA, a motley crowd of Bhutto haters, were shown the door by the general who ruled for eleven years as the unquestioned dictator.
Thankfully the situation is not the same today. There are no scheming generals trying to take over. Democracy, with all its faults and warts, is taking roots.
Of course there is acertain lobby amongst the out of job politicians backed by a section of the media who are in a hurry to enter the corridors of power through the back door. At least they deliberately try to create the impression that a section of the quintessential establishment is backing them.
Imran Khan, a populist leader, does not need to take a short cut to power. Nonetheless he should be cautious not to become a victim of shenanigans of others.
Unfortunately Nawaz Sharif has disappointed many by his self-serving style of governance. He has effectively filibustered the Panamagate probe for the past six months. Perhaps the opposition was also unrealistically asking for Nawaz specific TORs and Imran demanding his resignation.
A negotiated settlement was the only answer. The government pressing the panic button is again seeking for a negotiated settlement. But now the opposition, in order to lend a helping hand, would ask for its pound of flesh.
In the meanwhile the military and civilian leadership seem to be openly at loggerheads after leaking of a story based on a national security meeting to an English daily. According to the corps commanders the leak was based on fabricated proceedings of the meeting.
Surely the leak could not have taken place without a nod from the top. Perhaps Sharif wanted to send a message to the west as well as India that his hands were tied to follow the security paradigm dictated by the army. This was a crude and shoddy attempt that eventually backfired on the government itself.
Its timing was wrong as well. With Imran Khan baying for blood the ruling lot should have been a bit cautious not to unnecessarily open new fronts. But as they say: power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
