A quantitative analysis.
A series of drone attacks started in 2005. The series was initially planned to target the terrorists hiding in tribal areas of Pakistan but the outcome of drone attacks were more grave than killing of terrorists only. The brutal strikes controlled by joystick millions of miles away have consequences we would be facing for decades. It has killed our self-confidence and destroyed our esteem as a sovereign nation.
Let’s analyze the drone attacks and see what wrong it has brought to Pakistan.
The first ever drone attack on the sovereign land of Pakistan happened back in 2004 in the Wana area of South Waziristan. The attack killed 6 people, out of which 2 were civilians and 2 were children. The series started then.
Let’s look into data collected by British Agency named The Bureau of Investigative Journalism. It is discovered that out of total 422 attacks on the surface of Pakistan, 72% of them targeted North Waziristan. The grave campaign went on killing massive amount of civilians. Exploratory Data Analysis on the data gave insight on comparison of civilians killed against the actual terrorists. It appears that out of 3,994 total killed, 965 of them were civilians which implies about 24% of causalities in drone attacks are of civilians.
North Waziristan has been the most unfortunate region with maximum civilian causalities while the Bannu Frontier region had the lowest. The most unfortunate part of drone campaign was hundreds of children killed as a collateral damage. Going further down in analysis, I found out that a total of 207 children were victim of Drone Attacks. Sadly, 2006 was the most unfortunate year in which 76 children fell prey to drone attack. Out of total causalities that happened so far, 5 % of them were of children.
George Bush administration in nine years of period is responsible for 51 drone attacks on the soil of Pakistan while in comparison to the current administration of Obama i.e. from 2009 till the present date, 371 strikes happened. That is about 600% increase in the drone strikes with Obama as President and Hillary Clinton as Secretary of the State.
With high winning chances of Hilary taking the office in January, one might expect the drone campaign to run as it is. The total civilian causalities between years are jaw breaking. It is learned that between 2005-2008, 56% of causalities were civilians. The most regrettable year of 2006 in which 95% civilians died in drone attacks. I broke down the location to find out that Data Khel had the highest strikes of total 37 followed by Shawal where 25 happened.
It was also learned that in any month, Friday is the day when a drone strike is likely to happen followed by Wednesday. I am particularly not sure about the reason but it might explain the high number of civilian causalities as crowd may gather for Friday Prayers.
I went down to see which government had the highest or lowest since the start of campaign. The first ever drone attack happened in the government of Musharraf and till the date of his resignation, a total of 16 drone attacks happened. While the PPP was in government with Asif Ali Zardari as President, an enormous number of 356 drone attacks happened. So far with the government of Nawaz Sharif, 55 drone strikes have happened in Pakistan.
Breaking down to attacks by year, it was learned that the frequency of drone attacks had a spike in post 2007. A total of 128 drone strikes happened in 2010 alone. The number started to drop later with lowest in last two years.
There might be a purpose which is served by a drone strike. There might be potential threats that are eliminated by a few drone strikes, but the damage it is causing socially and psychologically are far more dangerous than the purpose it serves. The epidemic of “Collateral Damage” will only cause retaliation, the uprising against the murderers who are sitting thousands of miles away playing the game of death with the joystick. The pukhtoons have history of vengeance; they revenge their enemies, in any way, through any way. So if Zubair, 13 years old, the brother of Nabila Rehman, pick up arms against the America, will then it be justified? A drone might kill one potential threat but leaves many definite threats behind.
The United States has used drones since 2004 but the program escalated after President Obama’s Inauguration. In the President Obama regime, highest number of 371 drone attacks happened. The President who was eager to end up the war overlooked an important aspect of drone warfare which has the highest number of civilian casualties, hence causing havoc.
The Database used for analysis is publicly available: The Bureau of Investigative Journalism.
