Escalating tension in the contested Kashmir region is presenting a challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, who needs regional peace to reach his principal goal of economic revival there. But Indian citizens have been clamouring for a response to what they say is a provocation by Pakistan, The New York Times said in a report on Thursday.
The situation not only risks economic growth but could also send two nations skidding into a nuclear war.
“It could happen, and it would be catastrophic for both countries,” said Stephen P. Cohen, the author of “Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum.
” India and Pakistan have been locked in a feud — it began nearly 70 years ago with their independence from Britain — mainly over the Himalayan valley called Kashmir.
There were warning signs over the last two years about rising unrest among young people in Indian-administered Kashmir. Small disputes with the Indian security forces stationed in the Kashmir valley often drew enormous crowds very quickly. The killing of a 22-year-old separatist militant named Burhan Muzaffar Wani by Indian security officers in July touched off the latest protests.
“Wani should have served as an alarm bell for the government system,” said Siddharth Varadarajan, a former editor in chief of the English daily The Hindu. “Why would a young man, instead of taking up engineering, adopt a course that any reasonable person would tell him would end up in death?”
Now the India-controlled part of Kashmir is engulfed in a crisis. Since the shooting, the Indian-controlled area has been shut down, with curfews and strikes forcing the closing of schools, offices and markets.
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The question now is whether Modi can defuse the crisis.
“I think Modi has the political capacity to do it,” said Ashley J. Tellis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Tellis said Modi had two advantages: His Bharatiya Janata Party controls the lower house of Parliament, so he has the legitimacy to make a bold move; and his party’s strong Hindu nationalist roots allow him to take more risks without being accused of pandering to Muslims, who make up the majority in Jammu and Kashmir.
But those same roots make it hard for Modi to enact a policy in Kashmir that will draw the young protesters into a dialogue.
“That must involve a conversation about the restoration of autonomy in Kashmir in a way originally imagined under the 1954 agreement,” Tellis said. He was referring to a deal struck by India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, that gave Jammu and Kashmir substantial political autonomy within India. That agreement has gradually eroded.
“I personally think any attempt simply to treat Kashmir as just another Indian state is not going to work,” Tellis said.
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Even if Modi is bold enough to try, he will need to regain control of the streets of southern Kashmir first and find a leader to engage in conversation. So far, the Indian government has been unable to find anyone with whom to negotiate.
For Modi, pressure remains strong to punish Pakistan with some form of military action for the attack on the army base.
Pakistan has talked tough. In a news release on Monday, Gen. Raheel Sharif, the Pakistani Army chief, said that “taking note of a hostile narrative” from India, the armed forces of Pakistan were “fully prepared to respond to the entire spectrum of direct and indirect threat.”
Speaking before the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Wednesday, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan said peace between his country and India “cannot be achieved without a resolution to the Kashmir dispute.”
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