Prospects of peace scuttled

Back to the drawing board it is then…

The anti-China nexus between US and India and the attempts by the former to ensure greater role for the latter in post-US era in Afghanistan and consequently growing military cooperation between India and Kabul, are ominous developments in regards to peace and security in the region, particularly the process of reconciliation in Afghanistan. In my discourses on the issue I have been emphasising for quite some time that assigning enhanced role to India in Afghanistan by US and the attempts by the former to gain a foothold in the conflict-ridden country would further precipitate the situation instead of promoting peace and security in Afghanistan and the region. The Taliban whose participation in any initiative designed to nudge the process of reconciliation in Afghanistan is an indispensable imperative, would never like the Indian involvement in Afghan affairs.

The US and NATO commander in Afghanistan  General John Nicholson visited Delhi last month and urged the Indian government to enhance military aid to Kabul maintaining there was an urgent need for it. Afghan Army Chief General Qadam Shah Shahim also traveled to India last week asking for more military equipment, particularly MI-25 helicopters. India recently had supplied four Russian made helicopters to Kabul which it is using to target Taliban and checking their assault on government installations. India has also reportedly given economic assistance to the Kabul regime for reconstruction projects since the ouster of the Taliban from power in 2001.

My assessment of the unfolding realities has been vindicated. The Taliban for the first time have publicly come out with the strongest possible condemnation of Indian military assistance to Kabul.  The spokesman of Taliban Zabiullah Mujahid in a statement issued on Sunday said “The Islamic Emirate condemns this action in the strongest terms. We call on India to stop exporting items of killing and destruction to Afghanistan and to stop efforts of prolonging the life span of the corrupt Kabul regime with its military aid”. The statement also accused the Afghan forces of using Indian attack helicopters to destroy a key bridge in Kunduz province during recent fighting between Taliban and Afghan forces and castigated India for its anti-Afghan actions saying “This cannot be interpreted as anything other than enmity with the Afghans and shall arouse hatred of the people of Afghanistan”.

US Secretary of state who visited India last week also announced plans for revival of trilateral talks between India, Afghanistan and the US. That clearly is an attempt to isolate Pakistan and giving India an enhanced role in Afghanistan. Taliban are extremely hostile to US–India nexus.  Military cooperation between India and Kabul, ostensibly against Taliban, therefore constitutes a body blow to the prospects of peace in Afghanistan. It has effectively scuttled prospect of peace in that war ravaged country. Indian military cooperation with Kabul regime against Taliban will further perpetuate the already existing hostility towards the Indians. Further, US attempts to prop up India as a super regional power to counter balance rising Chinese influence in the region and beyond and to pursue its strategic interests in connivance with India also run counter to Pakistan’s strategic and geo-political interests. Such a situation would also be unacceptable to Pakistan. Therefore, the US if it is really interested in ending conflict in Afghanistan, will have to revisit its obsession with Indian role and take decisions on the basis of the existing ground realities.

Pakistan is probably the biggest stakeholder in peace in Afghanistan as there can be no peace and an end to terrorism within its own territorial jurisdiction without the resolution of the Afghan conundrum. It is also a reality that the way to peace in Afghanistan leads through Pakistan. That role is dictated by historic bonds, geographical proximity and the influence that Pakistan is well positioned to exercise on the Taliban leadership to nudge the process of reconciliation. Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees for well over three decades and being an ally of Taliban in their fight against the former Northern Alliance which was supported by India,  it is in a much better position to coax them to join the process of reconciliation, provided an enabling environment is created by the US in recognition of the ground realities. US having used its military might and failed to subdue the Taliban movement must know that there is no military solution to Afghan conflict. Adding Indian military muscle to the situation is not going to help either.

The foregoing developments are indicative of the fact that the US was trying to further destabilise the region instead of bringing peace to it through well meaning and honest efforts. India also needs to ponder over and understand that her alliance with US in checking the Chinese influence in the region and beyond, her belligerent disposition towards Pakistan and her efforts to gain a foot hold in Afghanistan not only constitute a serious threat to peace and security in the region but could also have a boomerang effect on her. India is part of South Asia and its security and economic interests are inextricably linked with the countries of the region. Peaceful co-existence with the countries of the region was absolutely essential to peace and progress in India and in realising the objective of shared economic prosperity.

Any attempt to isolate Pakistan or keep it away from the process of reconciliation in Afghanistan is bound to prove counter-productive. Under the circumstances the US must be focusing its attention on further strengthening the QCG initiative and the newly formed QCCG forum, in which Pakistan is duly represented, to bring peace in Afghanistan as well as the elimination of terrorism from the region. The countries represented in both these forums are the ones who are directly concerned with situation in Afghanistan and its fall-out. They are surely better placed to play their role in this regard. India is not affected by the situation in Afghanistan. It may have good relation with Kabul regime but it is not in a position to woo the Taliban to the negotiating table, particularly after joining anti-Taliban military operation by her. Revival of the trilateral process between US, India and Afghanistan is not a good idea in regards to handling Afghan situation.

The US policies in the region, particularly with regard to Afghanistan are completely out of sync with the existing geo-political and geo-strategic realities of the region. It is a very sensitive region where four nuclear powers including Russia, China, Pakistan and India are in close geographic proximity. The US therefore needs to exercise utmost caution in dealing with the countries of the region. It must avoid doing anything that could lead to confrontation between the nuclear powers, particularly between Pakistan and India with all the accompanying disastrous consequences.