Imran Khan needs to brush up on his Plato
It was Plato who said that “a wise man only speaks when he has something to say, whereas an ordinary man speaks to say something”. Mr Imran Khan would be well advised to read more Plato, as he is now sounding more like a broken record than someone who has something to say.
Mr Khan is a classic case of active inertia, he wants to bring about Change but insists on using the same leadership and strategies that were used in the past by the very political parties he is opposing, thereby failing to adapt to changing realities as well as to voters expectations.
As evident by lack of support in his recent rallies, his supporters too are tiring of his constant reruns about the evils deeds of the Prime Minister and his cronies, that has been adequately documented but they need to be convinced why will PTI government be significantly different? So perhaps it is time for Mr Imran Khan to string a new narrative/delivery mechanism and demonstrate to the voter why they should vote for him rather than PML-N.
The problem with politics today is that it is overwhelmed by the velocity of news required to feed the frenzy of scores of television news channels in a 24/7 cycle format, particularly the seven to eleven pm week day talk shows. I understand that political parties now need to constantly come up with new tricks, but that should not preclude them coming up with and acting upon well thought out plans.
PML-N is well focused on how to win the next elections, in fact that is all they are doing with their development projects and well organised constituency level organisation. This party in one form or another has participated in every elections since 1985, and runs like a well-oiled machine election machine with a creditable winning record.
Any hope of forming government in center next elections lies in winning in Punjab, as 147 out of 272 seats (54% of total seats) in national assembly seats lie in Punjab. Here PTI needs to win at least seventy seats (or ten times the number of seats that they won last time around). All this requires grass root level mobilisation, selection of the right candidate and more importantly forming the right alliances.
Even if we hypothetically assume the this government is removed and a neutral interim set up is installed, the diehard voter base of PML-N in Punjab -as demonstrated in the 2002 elections, despite a hostile government their vote share remained between 25-30 percent of the total. In 2013 PML-N had a 58 percent vote share and won 122 out of 154 seats in Punjab.
To win a seat on average a candidate needs at least a forty percent vote share. So to have any hope PTI has to win almost two thirds of the floating (non PML-N) vote in at least seventy constituencies in Punjab. The choice of the candidate is important but even the strongest “electable” candidate only has a maximum of 20-30,000 ghar kai votes. The remaining 60,000 or so voters need to be persuaded fair and square.
There are glimmers of hope for PTI, in Lahore, in Jehlum, and in Lodhran by elections where it managed to substantially improve on its previous performance, but often that momentum could not take them across the finish line.
As Sir Leyton Crosby Camerons’ election strategy advisor put it. “There are certain constituencies that you can’t win, there are certain constituencies that you are certain to win, and then there are the marginal ones that can go either way”. To win elections, a party should maximise its focus on winning those marginal constituencies. – For instance PTI has no hope of winning the Pindi constituency he won last time simply because he has not visited his voters and has no local organisational presence there.
As a reality check PML-N government is in power it has all the government paraphernalia at its disposal which will provide its candidate assistance. The local body elections for example was a complete whitewash in favour of the various ruling parties, and unless PTI improves its political game significantly it will be out maneuvered. Particularly as today the traditional “electable” politician would opt for PML-N as a first choice, as that is perceived to be the winning ticket.
If Mr Imran Khan is serious he should stop saying that he has all the answers and instead think about how he can implement a strategy to win the elections, then for each potential battle ground constituency, as Cyril Almeida recently wrote in Dawn target perhaps the disgruntled farmers, the small business man and others – as well develop the local message and the local organisation and to deliver this. Under the present circumstances all this may be a bridge too far for the captain of the 1992 cricket team.
