After reluctant attempts to revitalise Indo-Pak relations, Narendra Modi, now in his third year as Indian prime minister, has lost patience and switched to the expected hardline tone of hostility. The latest example is an Indian government statement made days ago, in which it announced it would increase the compensation for civilian victims of terror from 300,000 rupees to 500,000. More importantly, Kashmiris on the Pakistani side of the border can claim this compensation, too.
This is not the only provocation. Another was his Independence Day address on August 15, and he said, “From the ramparts of the Red Fort, I want to express my gratitude to some people – the people of Balochistan, Gilgit, and Pak-occupied Kashmir – for the way they wholeheartedly thanked me” Chinese newspaper “Global Times” said while criticizing the Indian Prime Minister on Tuesday.
The Newspaper said Analysts see the political push as coming from a small team filled by influential ministers and people who are the veterans of the “cold war” with Pakistan. Some are members of the National Executive of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a right-wing organisation that provides ideological support to Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party.
This risky gesture is not supported by everyone in the Indian government. Outstanding reservations come from his intelligence chiefs and the external affairs ministry.
Why would Modi choose to publicly reference Balochistan when his country kept denying an Indian role there? Even on Kashmir, why would he be so provocative when the Pakistani response will inevitably draw world attention at a time his government is trying to prevent the issue being internationalised?
The answer can be traced to recent events in India-controlled Kashmir, which has been hit by massive protests, violence and death in the last 50 days. The crisis is the result of the death of Burhan Wani, a young Hizbul Mujahideen commander from south Kashmir’s Tral area. He and two associates were cornered and killed by Indian security forces on July 8.
While stressing that no compromise will be made with those indulging in violence, India’s Union Minister Arun Jaitley again blamed Pakistan for its supposed role in the situation, “Now, this time, a serious situation has emerged in which Pakistan, separatists and religious forces have joined hands and now with a new way, they are attacking the integrity of India.”
Pakistan did put diplomatic pressure on the Indian government to restrict its reaction. But as noted by some Indian observers, the Burhan Wani incident is homegrown militancy, partly as a result of increasing communal cleavage in the country and the excessive use of force by the Indian government to suppress local calls for autonomy.
Not surprisingly, there are speculations that Modi is just trying to divert global attention from what’s going on in the valley. This may only make it even trickier for India to find a resolution by deliberately expanding the range of bilateral conflicts.
“Another concern for Modi is the 19th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit, which will be held in Pakistan this year. Modi is scheduled to visit Islamabad for the SAARC summit in November, but the impatient prime minister has decided to break up the Indo-Pak impasse to see what can be fished from the troubled waters,” it said.
“But the long-term cost will be the moral blow to India when it tries to manage its own insurgencies and secessionist movements, which tends to invite international attention and intervention,” it said.
