Will we drink a cup o’ kindness yet, for auld lang syne?
Tensions between Pakistan and India, the two biggest SAARC members, are threatening to overshadow the summit. That India has decided not to send its finance minister to SAARC finance ministers’ conference in Islamabad indicates that Prime Minister Modi might not attend the summit. The two countries are currently involved in an acrimonious war of words over Indian atrocities in Kashmir. That no meeting has taken place between the two foreign secretaries also conveys a negative message. A new dispute has arisen meanwhile with Modi accusing Pakistan of human rights violations in Balochistan. This has led Islamabad to charge New Delhi of crossing a red line by interfering in Pakistan’s internal affairs.
Twice in the past have SAARC summits been instrumental in bringing India and Pakistan together when their relations had touched the nadir. In Kathmandu Summit in 2002 the tension was suddenly defused when – totally unexpectedly – Musharraf walked up to Vajpayee, forcing the Indian Prime Minister to rise and shake hands with the author of Kargil – not only leading to a thaw in the frosty relations but also to important back channel talks on the resolution of the Kashmir issue. In 2014, in Kathmandu, the host country played a key role in arranging a mountain retreat where the Modi-Sharif handshake salvaged the SAARC summit even though the relations remained strained.
India is not the only problem. While the Modi government has tried to win over Afghanistan and Bangladesh – and succeeded – Pakistan’s relations with both have deteriorated, indicating failure on the part of Pakistan’s foreign policy makers. Strong arm tactics have further pushed Afghanistan into the Indian camp. In the case of Bangladesh, Ch Nisar’s uncalled for statements on executions in Dhaka (an internal Bangladesh issue) significantly contributed to the existing strains. This year Ch Nisar’s treatment of his Indian counterpart further added to the existing discord with India. The aim of foreign policy is to reduce the enemies and increase friends. In case the opposite happens, there is something wrong with the policy which has to be reviewed to correct the course.
