Libyan pickle

Qaddafi is in a pickle, so is Obama along with the allied forces. And it does not seem to be getting better any time soon. Libya poses a different sort of a test; Libyan populace is not well knit due to tribal culture and society. Getting them to act the same is perhaps not possible there are forces loyal to Qaddafi at least not without a strong leadership. Had Qaddafi not resorted to violence, the international forces would have no justification for the intervention. But it was not to be.

The rudderless Libyan rebels retreated to the Ajdabiya, losing control of the captured key oil-rich areas. With no air strikes by the allied forces on Tuesday, it was bound to happen. The world leaders in the London Conference, from the UN, EU, Nato and Arab League, did nothing more than a meeting. US President Barack Obamas position is even more precarious. Fight they must, he says. But to what objective, the Republicans are asking. If he decides to fight, the US would be implicated in yet another war with the last two still haunting them politically and bleeding them economically. What will decide the success here is yet another unanswered question. The UN mandate to protect the civilians is vague; allowing for intervention but mum on its extent forcing countries like China and Germany to oppose the intervention. Reports claim Al-Qaida and Hezbollah fighters are among the rebels, rendering it almost impossible to help them with arms and ammunition.

One thing is for sure, a regime change without a suitable alternative will create another Afghanistan. That Qaddafis stay is no longer viable is a bygone conclusion but avoiding another quagmire is imperative too. Opportunities like the Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussas defection to the allied forces must not be squandered. The UN and Nato need to be specific about their objectives, satisfying the concerns of the AU and other major powers. The US must come upfront about its involvement some CIA agents are in the conflict zone establishing contacts and mustering the resistance forces before it decides to dig its heels in against the ageing Col.