Despite being one of its foremost allies in the so-called war on terror, Pakistan is being increasingly referred to as Americas frenemy rather than a friend. Even the Chief of Army Staff General Kayani while complaining about Washingtons consistent arm-twisting has often called Pakistan the most bullied ally.
And this was before relations hit an all time low after the Raymond Davis fiasco. The ostensibly fruitless visit to the US of the ISI chief General Shuja Pasha is symptomatic of the chimerical relations of the two countries.
The CIA contractor Davis left the country as a result of a surreptitious and a controversial deal. The drone attack the very next day evoked a strong reaction even from the usually reticent Army Chief. If one of the reasons behind General Pashas brief (by some accounts abortive) visit to Washington was to convince CIA chief Leon Panetta that the drone attacks did more harm than good to relations, he miserably failed in his mission.
As if a deliberate snub to Pakistan, there was a drone attack over South Waziristan even before Pashas plane took off from the US capital. There is no doubt that US-Pakistan relations have touched their lowest ebb in years. So much so that apart from the core issue of Kashmir with India, in the words of our foreign office spokesperson, we now have drones as a core irritant in relations with the US.
On reducing CIA operatives in the country, the US has only assured Islamabad of sharing information as much as possible. Similarly, there was no definitive agreement on reducing the number of US combat troops embedded for training purposes. A hapless Gilani has said that the matter will be resolved through diplomatic channels. He did not name the country that could plead Islamabads case with Washington.
Americas approval rating in Pakistan had marginally improved after Secretary of State Hillary Clintons visit during which she successfully reached out to civil society. However, as a result of recent events, it has virtually dropped to nil except in minuscule parts of the political and urban elite.
Even President Zardari who has a pending invitation to visit Washington has been forced to admit in a recent interview that the Afghan war was destabilising Pakistan. He also complained that US politicians had a limited understanding of the impact of US policies on Pakistan.
But the most interesting reaction has come from leader of the opposition Nisar Ali Khan. Twice in a week, he has come out hard on the ISI as well as the military leadership. He has alleged that Pasha used the Raymond Davis issue to wrangle an extension in his term. How, he did not specify.
While Nawaz Sharif is still resting in London after his heart surgery, Nisar has come out full throttle against the ISI Chief alleging that the agencies are busy in funding specific political parties to create a new alliance. He has not named any political party nor has he specified against which party this alliance is being created. But, by implication, it is obvious that he considers his own party as the victim of the ISIs shenanigans.
It is not at all surprising that the PML(N) needs scapegoats to explain its poor showing in a number of recent by-elections in its home province, the Punjab. And nobody fits the bill better than the ‘agencies. Nawaz Sharif while talking to a delegation of South Asia Free Media Association (SAFMA) a couple of months ago directly blamed the ISI for interfering against the PML(N) in the by-elections in Punjab.
It is bit of an exaggeration to allege that the ISI is running the country. Nevertheless, Nisar is right to demand that the parliament should be taken in confidence about the ISI Chiefs recent visit to Washington. For long, the civilian leadership has failed to lead on foreign policy and security issues especially relating to the US, India and Afghanistan. It has taken the easy path by ceding this role to the Army.
Drone attacks are not a new phenomenon. About 2000 persons have been killed since 2007 as a result of these attacks. About 900 lost their lives last year alone on Obamas watch. Surely, these incursions could not have taken place without complicity of the government and the military leadership at some level. That is why Pakistan has earned the dubious distinction of being the only ally of the US whose population is regularly bombed by its mentor.
While all this is happening, rumours about a government of technocrats have crept up again. As long as the opposition does not play ball, it is difficult to envisage such a change. Previously, whenever presidents or army chiefs have dismissed governments the opposition has been complicit.
When Nawaz was sent packing by Musharraf, virtually every political party including the PPP welcomed it. Similarly, the opposition was ecstatic when PPP governments were dismissed.
This time around PML(N) has refused to play ball on this count. Despite differences with Zardari, Nawaz Sharif and his leader of the opposition have consistently opposed any role for the Armed Forces in politics. He knows that any extra-constitutional change would set the clock back for him by many years. That is why he assured Gilani the other day that he will not rock the boat.
Some analysts feel that the government will be sent packing before the next Senate elections due March 2011. There is precedent for that. In the summer of 1996, the military leadership as well as then President Ghulam Ishaq were apprehensive that the government will become too powerful if it was able to wrest a majority as a result of Senate elections due in March 1997. Consequently, Benazir was sent packing in November 1996.
With a free media, a fiercely independent higher judiciary and the opposition not being driven to the wall, a repeat of 1996 seems difficult. Nonetheless, if the government and the opposition keep squabbling on petty issues and do not consolidate their positions on many others, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The extent to which the government has failed to take a leadership role on vital foreign policy and security issues is evident from the fact that it has failed even to nominate a foreign minister since the exit of Shah Mahmood Qureshi from the cabinet. Then why blame the Army alone?
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.
