As Libya teeters on the brink of a chaotic civil war, its strongman Muammar Gaddafi obstinately refuses to quit. Delusional about his invincibility, he has vowed to die a martyr rather than step down or go into exile.
Will the process in Libya be an exception to the winds of change blowing over the Middle East that have swept away corrupt and autocratic regimes in Tunisia and Egypt? Gaddafi is counting on tribal loyalties and his narrow support base to stick to power around Tripoli while most of the east is already in the hands of the rebels.
The West is grinding its loins to impose a no-fly zone over Libya but it has been thwarted in its attempts, not only by a recalcitrant Russia and China but also by its own hesitation to intervene in an incipient peoples movement. The Obama administration is aware of the consequences and, unlike its predecessor, does not want to commit the Herculean blunder of militarily intervening in the conflict.
The kind of pressure being exerted by his people and the world on him, Gaddafi will have to go sooner rather than later. Long past his sell-by date, he has blamed Al-Qaeda agents, drunkards and drug addicts of trying to oust him.
Ironically most of the despots in the Middle East, whether kings, nationalists or usurpers, have been taken by utter surprise by the turn of events triggered off by the self-immolation of a vendor just a few months ago in Tunisia. Equally, the West that has been bankrolling or politically supporting autocratic regimes in the region has been caught unawares by these momentous changes.
Hosni Mubarak was the poodle of the United States in the Middle East and main anchor for its pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian policies. Even Gaddafi had been co-opted in recent years. In return for lucrative oil exploration and defense deals, the Labour government in Britain showed no hesitation in embracing him.
The momentous peoples movement is nationalist in nature even without invoking nationalism. Although not strictly secular, Islamic slogans or Islamists are conspicuously missing from the narrative.
On the average about 50 per cent of the combined population of Saudi Arabia, Libya Egypt and Tunisia is less than 25 years of age. For them Al-Qaeda or, for that matter, Hezbollah do not offer any positive vision of the future. Democracy, pluralism and freedom are the dominant themes of the ongoing revolution, unprecedented since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The usual rhetoric about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or blaming the West for backing the corrupt dictatorships, is also conspicuously absent. But this does not mean that the ongoing revolution will not have far-reaching consequences for Israel and its mentor the US.
Washington should be prepping itself for a more independent, nationalist albeit not necessarily rejectionist foreign policy from the region. Like Turkey, these counties might not seek destruction of the Israeli state. However, call for a just solution of the Palestinian question will gain momentum.
Hence, it will become increasingly difficult for the US to militarily and politically continue to prop up Israel at the expense of the Arab masses. In any case, Israel is bound to lose its much-hyped status as the only democracy in the Middle East.
Similarly, efforts to isolate Iran will receive a big setback as a result of these winds of change. On the flip side, however, Islamist movements like Hezbollah in Lebanon are also bound to receive a setback as the discourse shifts from religion to democracy and pluralism. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt sensing the winds of change has already clipped it sails. Consequently, the old guard has been replaced by a new leadership that will vie for a place in the new Egyptian set up.
Despite the optimism being expressed, it is too early to predict how countries with virtually non-existent democratic institutions or leadership will make a transition to democracy. Mubarak is gone but only after handing power to the military. However, it seems difficult that those who thronged Tahrir Square in Cairo will not return if their aspirations for change are not met within a reasonable time frame.
Tunisia does not even have a strong army. Its prime minister resigned a few days ago amid economic and political chaos. With thousands of Tunisians fleeing to Italy, the corrupt former oligarch Ben Ali has left the country in utter chaos.
The most interesting case is that of Saudi Arabia. As long as the revolution was restricted to oil-deficit countries like Egypt and Tunisia, there was little cause for worry of regime change in oil rich kingdoms and sheikhdoms. But the turmoil in Libya and in neighboring Bahrain is not only worrisome for the Saudi monarchy but also for the West which is dependent on uninterrupted supply of Middle Eastern oil for its economic survival.
As a result of Arab protesters demanding democratic freedoms, the price of oil is rising. According to the International Energy Agency, European refineries are dependant upon sweet Libyan crude. Its production has been halved since the beginning of the Libyan crisis. Although Saudi Arabia, the worlds biggest petroleum exporter, has increased its production by half a million barrels a day, a sudden popular uprising to overthrow the Saudi monarchy will almost certainly bring a worldwide recession which the West can ill afford.
When Saudi king Abdullah arrived home last week after recuperating from a back ailment, he announced handouts worth $37 billion intended to placate Saudis of modest means. Despite this generous gift for his people, the Saudi king has been short on much needed democratic reforms. According to the non-profit organisation Freedom House, which rates countries on a freedom scale from 1 to 7, Saudi Arabia stands at the bottom with a score of 6.5.
It is obvious that despite the rhetoric emanating from Washington in support for democracy in the Middle East, the situation is a major cause for concern. After all, the dominos which are falling now, with a few exceptions, have historically furthered the foreign policy goals and economic interests of the US. Now with the balance tipping, these vital interests are in jeopardy.
Even in countries like Pakistan, which although can boast of all the freedoms which the Middle Eastern masses can only dream of, change cannot be entirely ruled out. But such a change will not be secular and could usher the nuclear-armed country into a deeper abyss.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.
