Fred Halliday, the celebrated specialist on Middle Eastern affairs, taught international affairs at the London School of Economics until his death last year. A few decades ago, he wrote a book titled Arabia without Sultans, which from a Marxist point of view, lamented the fact that the kings, sultans and sheikhs still lorded over it. In the context of the present turmoil in Tunisia, this excellent work is still very relevant as nothing much has changed in the region.
With the copycat uprising in Egypt and to some extent in Algeria, the common question being asked is that whether the dominos will fall after what started as the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia. Even the monolithic regimes in Libya and Jordan are nervous about the winds of change blowing their way. Some analysts are having a field day drawing analogies between the uprisings in the Maghreb and Pakistan.
There are basic historical and cultural and differences in the Pakistani experience and that of the Middle East. Perhaps despite the efforts of the pan Islamists over the years, there is very little that is common between the Arab nations and Pakistan except religion.
For starters Pakistan like the rest of South Asia, despite consistent setbacks in the form of frequent military interventions has a relatively developed political system based on plurality which the Arab people can only dream of. Hence while analysing the precarious situation in the country, we should also count our blessings.
Pakistan in recent years, especially in the post Musharraf period, has made strides in at least laying the basis of democratic institutions. For example, the higher judiciary is fiercely independent and assertive. Similarly, the media is largely free and not shy of criticising the government. There is a functioning bureaucracy still grounded in the British tradition.
To top this, we have scores of political parties of different hues and ideologies. The mainstream parties have formed a coalition to run the government and there are others who are asserting themselves as the political opposition. Even the religious right strives to contest elections for the parliament.
Elected parliaments, a free press and vibrant political parties (except the one ruling) are luxuries still elusive to the people of the Middle East. Admittedly there are warts in the system. For example, although the military in Pakistan is on the sidelines and loathes taking over, the civilian control over the Armed forces is still a pipe dream.
Pakistan is not a police state while Tunisia despite the revolution still is. And so is Egypt. The ousted Tunisian president Ben Ali relied heavily on the security forces to keep his stranglehold on power while neutering the relatively small military. It is vastly outnumbered by the politically vital security forces with about 180,000-strong troops and militias; that is up to one police/security officer for every 55 Tunisians. The police force is about the same size of Britain, a nation six times larger than Tunisia.
Regardless of the vast differences between the uprising in Tunisia and the prevalent situation in Pakistan, there are lessons to be learnt. Tunisia has shown that the dispossessed and unemployed urban youth can be a precursor for turmoil.
The jobless Tunisian youth Muhammad Bouazizi, who by his self-immolation started it all, was a graduate and was a vegetable vendor who could not sell vegetables as the feared police revoked his license to do so. Tunisia, despite not producing any oil, has a relatively stable economy and a rising middle class. In spite of this, the educated youth is jobless.
The problem was compounded by Ben Ali and his familys rampant corruption. According to The Economist the web of influence and corruption extended to the husbands of the presidents four daughters and to the many relatives of his second wife. Between themselves, they came to control a huge slice of the Tunisian economy and the banking system.
The ruling elite in Pakistan is perceived to be corrupt and incompetent by a large part of the populace. This thinking is also reflected in the media. Albeit mistaken, the general perception is that most of the economic problems being faced by the country can be traced back to lack of transparency and cronyism. Even those politicians who are part of the problem rather than the solution talk of an impending revolution.
The MQM supremo Altaf Hussain, perhaps frustrated by the ongoing verbal brawl with the PML(N), gave a call for imposing martial law in the country, which somehow he will personally lead. This could be just a flash in the pan as politicians by and large are weaved in the system and there is a wider consensus to keep the military out of politics.
However lack of consensus on how to fix the economy could make Altaf Hussains lament a self-fulfilling prophecy. Given the deep economic crisis being faced by the country, it seems there is no light at the end of the tunnel.
Major political parties are resisting moves to widen the tax net and to document the economy. They neither want oil prices to increase nor the subsidies to be removed. At the same time they want the budget deficit to remain low. And no one wants income on agriculture to be taxed either. That the fixed income groups no longer have the capacity to pay more taxes is a dilemma.
As far as the government is concerned, it refuses to listen to its own economic managers. Corruption scandals coming to light thanks to the independent judiciary and a vibrant media, although letting the steam out, are further eroding the credibility of the government.
The net result is that our economy is in a negative tailspin while that of India is growing by 8 percent. This is especially worrisome for the Army, which is now finding it virtually impossible to maintain the myth of matching Indias defense arsenal.
To top this, is the scourge of terrorism and religious extremism that is eating into the very entrails of the nation. As if the Taliban and their off shoots and allies within Pakistan were not enough to deal with, the Barelvi school to which a majority of the Pakistanis belong to is becoming increasingly active and assertive post Salmaan Taseers assassination.
All this does not augur well for the immediate future. A flash, a la Tunisia, can bring people on the streets with unpredictable consequences. Possible reaction to the recent incident in Lahore in which an undercover agent posing as a US diplomat shot two persons and a local consulate car crushing the third to death is a case in point.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.
