A large part of the PPP-led federal governments energies are spent on staying in power by keeping the allies in good humor and deflecting the opposition pressures or coping with sudden surfacing of violent incidents like a killing in Karachi, terrorist attack or street agitation. It also deals with the demands and pressures from the traditionally powerful military and foreign powers, especially those providing economic assistance to Pakistan.
The opposition parties have a clear advantage over the government because these do not have to face these pressures directly. They are free to make high-sounding demands and complain about the neglect of the common people by the government. It is easy to take the so-called principled stand on corruption and bad governance without suggesting precise strategies applicable to Pakistans troubled political and economic context.
Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, who had lost the majority in the National Assembly, secured his government by winning back the support of the MQM on January 7. The prime minister also attempted to win back the support of the JUI(F) but its leader, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, decided to play tough by changing his tactics from political to religious. Knowing his limitation with regards to mobilising support on purely political discourse, he joined the other ultra-Islamist clergy in their protest for making no changes in the blasphemy law. This gave him a ready audience that applauded his sharp criticism of the PPP-led federal government. Other religious leaders were happy on his return to their fold.
The MQMs return to the government benches partly neutralised the PML(N) pressure that had given a deadline to the federal government for implementing an agenda in a fixed time-frame. Nawaz Sharifs agenda of demands to the prime minister had a three-day deadline for being accepted or rejected. If the agenda was accepted, then the federal government was to implement it in 45 days. If no positive response was available in three days, the PML(N) was to remove the PPP ministers from the Punjab government. However, Nawaz Sharif did not say what his party would do after removing the PPP ministers. He could work towards mobilising support among the opposition parties for a vote-of-no-confidence against the prime minister.
The return of the MQM to the government made the PML(N) ultimatum irrelevant because the government retrieved its majority in the National Assembly. The PML(N) faced a dilemma because if it did not remove the PPP minister on the grounds that the PPP did not respond positively to the agenda, this was to be a major embarrassment for Nawaz Sharif. However if the PPP ministers were removed, the PPP was expected to get closer to the PML(Q) and build counter- pressure on the PML(N) government in the Punjab.
The prime minister wanted to defuse the tension with the PML(N) in the Punjab. He accepted the PML(N) agenda of demands which gave face-saving to Nawaz Sharif for getting out of the deadlines issue. After the acceptance of their demands, the PML(N) said that there was no reason for removing the PPP ministers because the prime minister had agreed to implement the PML(N) agenda.
The PML(N) has offered a very broad agenda which no political leadership would reject. However, it is so broad that no government can implement it in one year, not to speak of 45 days as demanded by the PML(N). Some of the agenda items are the perennial problems which neither started with the PPP government nor would these end with the exit of the PPP government.
The major agenda items were the reversal of the hike in petroleum prices (already done); a people-friendly pricing system for gas, electricity and petrol; ending gas and electricity load-shedding; measures to end corruption in government and the sacking of corrupt ministers and other corrupt officials; implementation of the NRO judgment in true letter and spirit; completion of the election commission; reduction of the cabinet size; cut-backs in government expenditure by 30 percent; strict action against the culprits of Hajj, NICL, Steel Mill and the Bank of Punjab scam; and establishment of an independent accountability commission and recovery all politically written-off loans.
It is a set of ideal demands which no government can fulfill in a couple of years, not to mention 45 days. For setting up a good precedent for the federal government, the PML(N) could start with implementing those agenda items in the Punjab that pertain to the provincial level, i.e. the end of corruption and price hike, reduction of the members of the cabinet and others on special appointments/consultants with fat perks, trim-down government expenditure.
Some of the demands are like slogans, i.e. end corruption and remove corrupt ministers. All political parties raise this slogan but nobody has a clear cut plan to do this. As a matter of fact, corruption has gone so deep in the society that the removal of 5 to 10 cabinet ministers may not end corruption but it can cause the collapse of the federal government. How can a minister or senior official be removed without fully establishing the charges?
A coalition government is always handicapped with regards to taking tough decisions. Some high-profile positions are offered to the coalition partners for getting their political support. The imperatives of keeping the coalition intact often override other considerations.
The federal government and the PML(N) have set up a committee to suggest ways to implement these demands. Both sides know that these demands cannot be implemented fully by this or any new government under the present political situation but they do not want to accept this reality for different sets of reasons. The federal government wants to maintain peace with the PML(N) in the Punjab, at least for the time being. The PML(N) wants to push this agenda to keep the federal government under pressure.
It will not be long that the PML(N) and the PPP will engage in another round of charges and counter-charges. The PML(N) will accuse the PPP of betraying the commitment on the agenda and the PPP will argue that it was gradually implementing the agenda but the PML(N) was impatient and did not fully cooperate. The current ceasefire between the PPP and the PML(N) may not last long. Much also depends on the role of the new governor in the Punjab. If he plays a reconciliatory role between the two parties, the conflict can be moderated or defused.
The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.
