Events have moved so fast since the advent of the New Year that it is difficult to keep pace with them. Salmaan Taseers tragic assassination coincided with Nawaz Sharifs ultimatum in the wake of the virtual falling apart of the ruling coalition. MQM is back in the folds again and now we are told by no less than Nawaz Sharif himself, that his ultimatum was not an ultimatum at all.
Governor Latif Khosas oath-taking ceremony was almost surreal in the sense that the PML(N) that boycotted the late governor Taseer throughout his tenure, was present in full force at the ceremony. After exchange of pleasantries between the new inductee and the PML(N) supreme, it was evident that a new beginning is being made in Punjab.
Senior minister Raja Riaz was beaming at the ceremony, visibly relieved that his job is safe for the time being. There was no mention, in the slogans or otherwise, of the man who was the occupant of the Governors mansion less than a week ago and had died in office for a cause.
The debate has quickly shifted from the assassination of Taseer to the currents it has unleashed. The US Vice President Joe Biden on a day-long visit to Islamabad was quick to point out that societies which applaud such actions end up being consumed by such actions. In his opinion, the real threat to Pakistan was not from Washington but from the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban taking refuge in its tribal areas.
Obviously advice from Washington should be taken with a pinch of salt. The US firmly believes that the centre of the Afghan resistance are the safe havens of the terrorists in N. Waziristan and it is exerting its pressure on the Pakistani military to move in to flush them out.
The fundamentalist forces are on the rampage and unapologetic about Taseers murder. Several big demonstrations across the country have been held in support of the assassin. His defiance and the pride he has displayed for his violent act have laid bare the extent of fragmentation of the Pakistani society.
We are in a double whammy. On one side are the Wahhabi supported jihadi Taliban forces and on the other now is the vast swath of the “sawad-e-azam” to which a majority of Pakistanis belong. And a good number of them make no distinction between blasphemy and man-made blasphemy laws.
On the other hand, the liberal elite is too weak and disorganised to make a difference. The expression of their unhappiness at the turn of events is mostly confined to candlelight vigils, Google groups and token demonstrations. And what else can the silent majority do in the face of threats?
In the present scenario, western analysts who keep a keen eye on the events in Pakistan are having a field day predicting the ultimate demise of the state. Dr Stephen P Cohen, a leading area specialist who has traveled many times to Pakistan and has written a number of books on military-civilian relations and terrorism, has declared in a recent interview given after Taseers assassination that, The fundamentals of the state (Pakistan) are either failing or questionable. According to him, this applies to the idea and purpose of the state and also to the coherence of the state itself.
It is indeed a harsh denouncement and might have an element of hyperbole in it. After all, if a US Congresswoman is slain by a madman, the Tea Party movement is blamed for the hate campaign against the Democrats and not the state. But in the case of Pakistan, the western media is having a field day questioning its very fundamentals.
The reason for this is simple. We have for far too long played with the basis of the state. A homeland for the Muslims founded by the Quaid e Azam has been transformed into a laboratory for different and sometimes divergent ideologies in the name of Islam. The rot had started even before the ideological dictatorship of General Zia. Now it has come full circle.
This malaise afflicts both our military, civilian politicians and a strong section of the media. The military since Zia has used the jihadist elements as strategic assets. It is perhaps only under General Kayani that it moved against the hydra of terrorism basically of its own creation.
Even now in the name of strategic depth and our India-centric policies, a distinction is made between the Pakistani Taliban and the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda. In the meanwhile, the US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff admiral Mike Mullen informs us that safe havens in Pakistans tribal areas are an epicenter of terrorism.
Our policy makers should not take his claim that the US cannot succeed in Afghanistan without shutting down these safe havens lightly. President Zardari is scheduled to meet the US President today in Washington. Naturally desperate to exit Afghanistan by 2014, the number one item on the agenda of President Obama will be the safe havens.
General Kayani had handed over his 14-page demarche on the subject to President Obama late last year when he visited Washington for the second round of the strategic dialogue. Naturally, with the civilian government considered to be weak, it is the head of the most powerful institution, perceived by the West as the most powerful man in Pakistan, whose opinion will matter in the end analysis. This means that no operation will take place in N. Waziristan in the near future.
Meanwhile, the PPP and the PML(N) are all set to discuss Nawaz Sharifs agenda, which has formed the basis of the recent thaw between the two parties. The prime minister should consider expanding the scope of the proposed committee to discuss matters more important than saving the coalition. It must include issues which are an existentialist threat to the state.
Unless a modicum of consensus is reached on principles that form the basis of the state, there is very little hope. This should include what kind of Pakistan our politicians envisage. Although Mian Nawaz Sharif vehemently denies it, there is a perception that the PML(N) in its anxiety to capture the right wing vote, betrays a soft corner for jihadist elements.
In order to take Pakistan forward as a modern democratic state in light of the Quaids ideals, our civilian politicians should make a concerted effort to be on the same page on strategic as well as ideological issues.
To quote from Jinnahs broadcast on Pakistan to the people of the United States in February 1948: Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.
