Recent events indicate that while the smaller political parties may play a crucial role in helping a major party to form a government when it is short of the required numbers, they may not always be in a position to affect a government change by subsequently withdrawing support. Every ruling party has enough resources at its disposal and can make use of patronage to elicit support from other smaller groups or independent parliamentarians when threatened by a no confidence move. Alternately, as has happened in the present situation a major party in the opposition unwilling to upset the system may foil the attempt. This indicates that the illusions of being kingmakers that the smaller parties sometimes develop could be disastrous for them.
The attempt to remove the Benazir administration in 1989 had met with a similar failure. Both MQM and ANP which were partners in the ruling coalition had withdrawn to join hands with the opposition i.e. the PML(N). The move to overthrow Benazirs government through an in-house change was supported by the ISI while funds were provided by Saudi donors including Osama bin Laden. The PML(N) spearheaded the move but the no confidence move fizzled out.
The JUI and MQM had obviously failed to learn from the example while the PML(N) and ANP were wiser this time. Those who deserted the ruling coalition were confident that their departure would leave Prime Minister Gilani short of 14 votes required to get a fresh vote of confidence. They had however made a big miscalculation by taking the PML(N) for granted. With its 90 votes the party is able to foil the attempts of all other opposition parties joined together to bring down the government. This is what the PML(N) has done to the great chagrin of the MQM and JUI(F). The venom the two parties are spitting now is due to the stand taken by Mian Nawaz Sharif which they had not taken into calculation. They are angry because the stand taken by the PML(N) has helped the PPP to cut them down to their size. Even if they eat humble pie by rejoining the government, they may not be able to continue to blackmail it as before.
Mian Nawaz Sharif knows well that the PPPs tenure will end in two years and that his party stands a fair chance to form the government after the next elections. On the other hand, any attempt to destabilise the system could facilitate a military takeover which might extend to maybe another decade. This could once again land the leaders of the mainstream political parties into jails or drive them into exile while leaving MQM and JUI to become a part of the new set up which they would do once again without any qualms of conscience.
While the bluff of the MQM and JUI has been called, the smaller parties still have an advantage. Keeping in view the fact that neither the PPP nor PML(N) have done anything to make them immensely popular during their respective tenures, neither is likely to gain an absolute majority in the next elections. This would again force both to seek the support of the smaller parties to form a government.
The need for support from the smaller parties forces the mainstream parties to maintain working relations with them irrespective of the reservations the major parties might have about them. The PPP with its policy of reconciliation continues to cultivate the MQM and JUI, the PML(N) does not.
One fails to understand what motivated Ch Nisar Ali Khan to let loose a highly irresponsible tirade against Altaf Hussains personal and family affairs. One did not expect this from a veteran parliamentarian who is also the Leader of the Opposition. This led to even worse muck racking by the MQM leadership. The statements from both sides have been widely condemned. But they have left a mark that will not be easy to remove.
It is easier to explain away political differences between erstwhile opponents forced by circumstances to come together. One can always maintain the other side has learnt from experience and has reconciled with a former political position. But it is difficult to join hands with someone against whom one has conducted a character assassination campaign.
The mainstream parties often tend to complain that they are blackmailed by smaller parties who demand a much larger piece of the cake than is justified by their parliamentary strength. A way out could be a coalition government with two major parties as components. Many had hailed when the PML-N had joined the Gilani cabinet in 2008. It was believed that the new administration could complete its five year tenure peacefully. Further, the coalition partners could discipline its lawmakers, form a small cabinet, strengthen the civilian hold and regain the turf lost to the army over the decades.
It was forgotten however that the two parties had a long history of rivalry. Further that they disagreed on some of the key issues, the restoration of the independent judiciary being the foremost. Other divisive issues included the attitude towards the terrorist outfits, the need to eradicate extremism and the laws that discriminate against minorities and women. The coalition between the PPP and PML(N) therefore was doomed from the outset.
The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.
