A Pyrrhic victory?
Both sides hurled all kinds of insults at each other during the acrimonious campaign. Admittedly Sharif was handicapped being in London for his surgery. But his minions did a good job in his absence
The PML-N sweeping the AJK (Azad Jammu and Kashmir) Assembly polls and routing the ruling PPP in the process is a much-needed shot in the arm for the ailing Sharif. The victory coincided with his arrival in the federal capital after an absence of two months.
The clean sweep in AJK has created such euphoria in the ruling party that the prime minister despite his frail condition after a quadruple heart by-pass surgery decided to visit Muzffarabad, the capital of Azad Kashmir, to personally thank his supporters. Since the AJK government is nominally run by the ministry of Kashmir affairs, it can be argued that it is not such a big deal winning the polls there. Whomsoever is in power in Islamabad traditionally bags the elections in the Pakistani Kashmir as well.
Nonetheless it was a very hotly contested election. Both Bilawal Bhutto, the youthful chairperson of the PPP, and the youthful looking PTI chairman put their best foot forward. They campaigned vociferously, hitting Sharif and his cronies really hard.
Both sides hurled all kinds of insults at each other during the acrimonious campaign. Admittedly Sharif was handicapped being in London for his surgery. But his minions did a good job in his absence.
Coincidentally the situation across the Line of Control (LOC) in the Indian held Kashmir also heated up during the campaign. Bilawal decided to drive the advantage home by painting Sharif as being soft on India. His campaign jalsas resonated with the slogan, “Modi ka jo yar hai ghaddar hai ghaddar hai” (one who is Modi’s friend is a traitor).
But this strategy seems to have backfired. In the elections, the Pakistani Kashmiris were bothered about their bread and butter issues rather than the situation on the other side of the divide.
And here lies the rub. The PPP government in AJK was incompetent and corrupt; more concerned about their perks and privileges than dealing with rather mundane governance issues.
To say that the PML-N government is only interested in building roads, metros and power projects and hence should not be elected did not resonate well with the electorate. After all this is what people probably want in AJK where infrastructure is extremely poor and inadequate.
Branding the Sharifs as a corrupt lot was, unfortunately, the lowest common denominator in the elections. Notwithstanding master Bilawal’s rhetoric, the ruling PPP in AJK was not known for its transparency or good governance.
Election results in Kashmir are disappointing for the PTI as well. The enigmatic Khan campaigned very hard and aggressively too. However the only consolation prize the PTI got was winning a seat in Lahore apart from two in AJK.
Its freshly inducted stalwart barrister Sultan Mehmood, who despite his checkered past has consistently won six elections, badly lost this time. It is indeed ironical that Imran Khan who crows ad nauseam of being ‘Mr Clean’ is always more than willing to welcome any ostensibly winnable candidates in his fold.
Claiming in a rally while commenting on the abortive coup in Turkey, that people will distribute sweets if Sharif was ousted as a result of a martial law, was his coupe de grace. Later on he retracted his statement but perhaps the damage was done.
Without reading too much into the PML-N‘s victory in Kashmir, the opposition needs to revisit its strategy towards the ruling party. Merely attacking the Sharifs on corruption and poor governance will not yield dividends.
So far as the dhandli (rigging) mantra is concerned, like a broken record it has outlived its usefulness. ‘If there was rigging in AJK Assembly polls the opposition’s wrath will be so severe that the 2014 dharna would seem like a tea party’ was an empty threat hurled by Bilawal during the heated campaign. It will be hard to substantiate charges of rigging with the military manning the polls.
On the flip side it will be an extreme form of naivety on the Sharifs’ part if they think that the shot in the arm by winning AJK polls is a panacea for what ails the PML-N government on many fronts. There is a lot that has piled up upon Sharif’s desk during his eight weeks’ absence from Islamabad.
His biggest worry should be dealing with an increasingly recalcitrant opposition’s call to oust him by launching an agitation against his government. Perhaps somewhat luckily for him, Imran Khan without consulting the rest of the opposition has given a call for street protests starting August 7.
Notwithstanding the chinks in the opposition’s armour Sharif faces a formidable challenge, not being able to break the impasse on an agreed TORs (terms of reference) on Panamagate. The Khan knows his strengths as presently being the biggest crowd puller in politics. And he wants to put it to good use.
He perhaps does not care about the extent of instability his moves will generate. After all he has nothing much to lose.
The PPP is another kettle of fish. The opposition leader in the National Assembly, Syed Khursheed Shah, has lamented that his party was not taken on board before Khan unilaterally gave a call for agitation. Perhaps the PTI chief is well aware that Bilawal would not have agreed to his strategy without consulting his father. Or perhaps he would have?
Realistically speaking Zardari would love to damage the PML-N brand in cahoots with Imran as much as he could, short of implicitly inviting an extra constitutional dispensation. He knows very well that it is not his ‘Ghulam Ishaq moment’ when President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in 1993, after dismissing Nawaz Sharif as prime minister, joined hands with his pet hate — the PPP. The present army leadership is not favourably disposed towards him.
It is perhaps in Nawaz Sharif’s best interest to break the impasse and seek a solution within the parliament. However it is looking increasingly difficult with Imran Khan pointing a loaded pistol of street agitation to his head.
Another challenge for Sharif is how to deal with an increasingly assertive military leadership. Perhaps it is his good luck that the army chief, General Raheel Sharif, is due to retire in a couple of months.
The general’s larger than life size persona mostly, owing to his impeccable no holds barred performance and to some extent created by his image-makers, perhaps gives the jitters to the civilian Sharif. Nevertheless despite being constantly egged on by a section of the Bonapartist commentariat, the military is not in a takeover mode.
After four coups in the past it fully realises that governance is not its cup of tea. In any case if it can have its way without having the onerous responsibility of administration why should it go out on a limb?
Sharif will soon haveto decide about the successor to General Raheel Sharif. Some of his close consorts are advising him to give the COAS an extension in his term a la Kayani.
But Sharif reportedly wants to go by the book. Perhaps this is the right course that both the khaki and the mufti Sharif agree upon. And it should be followed in letterand spirit.
