Peace in Afghanistan remains elusive

AfPak relations play a key role

The NATO decision to keep 13000 thousand troops in Afghanistan till 2017 and pledging funds for local security forces until 2020, does not augur well for resolution of conflict in Afghanistan. It has actually scuttled whatever chances existed there to promote Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process of reconciliation. The NATO Secretary General referring to troop deployment at the NATO summit remarked” there is no reason to speculate how long it will continue. Afghanistan still faces serious instability and violence so our continued political, military and financial engagement is of great importance”. So there is all likelihood that it could go well beyond 2017. The prospects of peace in Afghanistan remain as elusive as ever.

This is indeed a very ominous development as it will never be acceptable to the Taliban, who have invariably demanded withdrawal of all foreign troops from the Afghan soil before they engage in reconciliation talks with the Afghan government. I have in my discourses on conflict in Afghanistan invariably maintained that the US was playing a double game as it was not serious in stability in this region, particularly in Afghanistan. Though it has been pretending to promote dialogue between the Taliban and the Afghan government, it has always undermined any progress in this regard. Pakistan made relentless efforts to facilitate the first ever interface between the Taliban and the Afghan government in Murree which ostensibly ended on a positive note with both the parties committing themselves to continue the dialogue. But before the second round could begin, the news of Mullah’s Umar’s death was deliberately leaked to sabotage the process.

Even the Afghan governments of Karzai and Ashraf Ghani have maintained a hostile posture towards Pakistan and have always blamed it for the trouble in Afghanistan. At the NATO summit President Ashraf Ghani said that Pakistan continued to differentiate between good and bad terrorists; the remark which has been characterised by the ministry of foreign affairs as ‘unfortunate, hostile and anti-Pakistan’. The US more or less also has been harping on the same tune.

The droning of Mullah Akhtar, the leader of Afghan Taliban on the Pakistani soil, non-cooperation with Pakistan on the issue of TTP operatives using Afghan territory for attacks on Pakistan and effective border management, are clear indications of the fact that the US is actually not interested in resolving the Afghan conundrum.

This duplicitous strategy of the US can be better understood in the backdrop of its ‘contain China’ policy, and its aversion to the CPEC initiative. Its efforts to prop up India as a counter balance against China and assigning a greater role to her in Afghanistan’s affairs are steps that go against the strategic interests of Pakistan in the region.

On the global level also the US and its allies are feverishly engaged in promoting instability in different regions to refashion the world according to their world view. What they have done in the Middle East and Libya and are trying to do in Asia Pacific, particularly South China Sea, are ranting examples of their imperialist designs.

Nevertheless, Pakistan has a genuine interest in peace in Afghanistan as it is linked to peace and security in Pakistan as well as the entire region. For that to happen, the government in Afghanistan has to cooperate with Pakistan in the fight against terrorism through effective border management and denial of sanctuaries to anti-Pakistan terrorists of TTP. They must realise that peace in Afghanistan is not possible without cooperation with Pakistan on reciprocal basis. It is really very regrettable that the Afghan government has not extended the desired cooperation in regards to preventing the use of Afghan territory by TTP terrorists for attacks on Pakistan despite the understanding reached between the two countries in the wake of APS attack in Peshawar and the subsequent attacks controlled and executed from Afghanistan. Pakistan also requested the Afghan government and the NATO forces before launching Zarb-e-Azb to take care of the border so that the terrorists fleeing from North Waziristan should not cross over to Afghanistan but nothing was done to prevent that eventuality. NO genuine interest has been shown either by the Afghan government or the US in pleas by Pakistan to take action against TTP leaders based in Afghanistan.

Pakistan perforce had to take unilateral action in regulating across the border movement of people from the two countries which led to unfortunate clash between the Security forces of the two countries at Torkham. As the things stand now it is indeed very difficult to nudge the process of reconciliation in Afghanistan from any forum whether bilateral or quadrilateral. The Taliban do not trust the US and the Afghan government and are not prepared to engage in any peace initiative. They are very much in a position of strength at the moment. It would require a fundamental change in the US-NATO strategy of employing stick and carrot method to force the Taliban to come to the negotiating table.

However there is no denying the fact that ultimately peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan can only be achieved through sincere efforts by both the Afghan and Pakistan government, facilitated and supported by all the stakeholders with the same commitment and honesty of purpose. The geographical realities and historic bonds between the two countries make them indispensable for each other. Pakistan’s role in any settlement would be of pivotal importance. Afghanistan has seen conflict for well over four decades and its people need and deserve a respite from this continued madness. Therefore the Afghan leaders need to act wisely, see through the designs of the outside powers and firm up their responses to the confronting challenges in view of the ground realities and what is best for the future of the country. Use of guns will never resolve the conflict in Afghanistan and the US has seen that in the 15 years since it launched the blitzkrieg.

Both the Afghan government and the US will have to trust and believe in the sincerity of Pakistan in assisting the peace process in Afghanistan, if they are really interested in it. Pakistan is desirous of peace in Afghanistan for its own sake, regional security and building regional linkages for shared economic prosperity; the narrative it is faithfully pursuing at the moment. It simply cannot afford to be duplicitous in its approach to the Afghan conflict.