AfPak reality check

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A proper mess

 

While the foreign office’s ‘disappointment’ over President Ghani’s remarks is understandable, at some level, it’s ‘surprise’ is not. Or perhaps the diplomatic corps, rudderless as it is, has simply missed the developments of the last half-year or so. Ghani, on the other hand, probably looks back at his gambit with Islamabad as a costly mistake; both for his political future and his country’s. Everything seemed fine till the Quadrilateral took off. Then it was difficult to bring things back on track after the Mullah Omar surprise, though Pakistan seemingly tried its luck with Mansour.

But the process had run out of steam long before the Americans took the Taliban commander out in Balochistan, and the Afghans understood this. Also, certain candid admissions by Sartaj Aziz regarding housing the Taliban in Pakistan – which came as quite a shock at the time – seemed to make our friends further doubt not just what we had been up to, but also our ability to influence the Taliban at all at the Quadrilateral level. That the insurgency was going the strongest since the war began did not make Islamabad’s task any easier, of course. Either way, the Afghans dumped the QCG altogether and the Americans became suspicious once again.

The F16 snub and a stiffer ‘do more’ indicate that Washington, too, has few hopes of Pakistan contributing much to the Afghan solution. Senator McCain, too, was not just speaking in a personal capacity when he talked of ‘convincing information’ regarding continued Haqqani presence in Pakistan. Islamabad must realise that sorting out this terrorism mess, in partnership with all stakeholders, is ultimately going to benefit Pakistan as much as the others, if not more. And, even if it has been sincere in its own war on terrorism, it has still failed to take other crucial partners along, which is essential whether Islamabad likes it or not. Just the other day the army chief assured Kabul of Pakistan’s sincerity. Hopefully these crucial channels of communication and cooperation will not be shut down because of the present confusion and frustration.