Climate smart seed is the solution
Cotton is the single most important crop for the Pakistan economy. This year due to a drop in its production, Pakistan’s GDP growth rate fell by a full one per cent posing a major question mark on the country’s economic health. It is worthwhile therefore to examine the reasons behind this decline and to understand the measures required to improve the situation.
The rapid growth of cotton production took place in the mid-eighties when the overall production increased from four million bales to over twelve million bales within a decade. An increase of over four hundred per cent driven mainly by yield improvement as the cropped area increased by only thirty per cent. This rapid increase was due to two main reasons: Firstly allowing private sector including foreign brands to market and distribute pesticide–anyone who watched television in those days may remember the proliferation of ads on TV then on how to eliminate the “American Sundi” (pest). Secondly, the advent and marketing of NIAB 78 (approved by the Seed Board in 1982), an all rounded superior and pest resistant variety of seed developed by the Faisalabad based Nuclear Institute of Nuclear Biology (NIAB).
Most of the cotton produced in Pakistan is concentrated in Punjab mainly in the adjacent districts of Khanewal, Vehari, Lodhran, Multan and Bahawalpur. The crop is sown all at the same time from the middle of May till early June and its growth cycle is more or less the same. A cotton plant typically grows, flowers which form into buds and the seed that is surrounded by lint, the buds open and the lint is then harvested over several pickings and then baled into cotton, the entire season lasts around five months.
Two new pernicious cotton diseases have plagued the cotton crop since 2000 namely the pesticide resistant Leaf Curl Virus (LCV) and the Pink Boll Worm which hides inside the bud, shielding it from pesticides efficacy. The government cotton research institutes have tried to develop effective seeds that are resistant to these new ailments, while maintaining quantity and quality of lint output. However in doing so other important parameters namely resistance to environmental stresses such as heat tolerance, drought tolerance, and nutrient sensitivity may have been affected.
Summer 2015 was particularly hot; changes in the wind pattern meant no cooling monsoon breeze, and little respite for night time temperatures remaining high. Due to high fertilizer prices the soil had not been adequately fertilized and the crops were undernourished and inadequately watered; resulting in a perfect storm event. The weakened plants could not withstand the continuous high temperature and as a result the flowers shed before seeds could be formed, and were then ravaged by the LCV. Given that the majority of the crop is in a contiguous geographic area and that the growth stages for the plants is similar, this weather pattern affected a large proportion of the production, resulting in a thirty per cent decrease in the country’s output.
In this budget the government has announced certain financial measures to help cotton farmers but what is really needed is a scientific solution: new climate smart seeds must be developed, seeds that can adapt to the changing environment, tolerate the additional stresses that todays’ plants have to withstand. This much needed development without eternal collaboration is beyond the capability of the government based cotton research institutes.
To his credit Mr Shehbaz Sharif did try and bring in international seed companies but was unfortunately brow beaten by the local politicians of the area commonly referred to as the seed mafia. People who in alliance with the government seed institutes greatly profit from this trade by being appointed as major resellers of the propagated seed, doled out to them by these same government institutes. As a result these government research institutions have become predatory in their practices while on their own unable to face the steep challenges of developing new and productive seed varieties.
India whose crop did much better this year allows international seed companies such as Bayer and Monsanto to market seed locally. To pay for intellectual property a licensing fee is levied if the growers choose to reuse the seed. Alternatively the option is to purchase hybrid seeds which are only used once.
The solution for us is to allow international companies to work with local breeders to develop what is known as climate smart seed, and offer a fast affordable means for local farmers to adapt to climate and environmental changes. To maintain continual growth in yields, the era of using saved seed is ending. The seeds must be locally produced, as exotic seeds such as the imported high yielding Australian varieties fared poorly, as they were decimated by local diseases when exposed to Pakistan conditions. However, using modern DNA markers, enhanced germplasm and greenhouses, the breeding cycle time to produce stable seed maybe reduced from the current six to seven years to two three years.
Today Pakistan’s yield per acre is fifty per cent less than that of developed countries like Australia, therefore agricultural extension services also form a critical component in helping farmers become productive unfortunately these currently only serve the limited elite farmers. For example the vector for transmitting the LCV is the whitefly (Trialeurodes vaporariorum) this must be controlled throughout the cotton growing region. Farmers must be kept abreast of the latest research on how to negotiate modern day challenges. Similarly, adequate and timely supply of irrigation water and affordable fertilizers are also major drivers for enhanced yields.
It is time the government realises that the cotton crisis is a major problem that money alone will not wish away. A concerted effort is needed to help with risk management by crop diversification and reduce the influence of the seed mafia and raise productivity. Nothing can fully eliminate the effect of climate change and pesticide resistant diseases but by embracing modern technology and honest agricultural practices, at least its impact can be reduced to the benefit of the farmer and the country as a whole.
