What ails us?
On one hand he is aggressively purusing economic and trade diplomacy with spectacular results. On the other, he has been successful in painting Pakistan as a perpetrator rather than the victim of terrorism.
A cacophony of lament on Pakistan’s current isolation on the international and regional stage is dominating the narrative. Suddenly the unpalatable home truth has hit our policymakers, civilian and khakis alike, that Islamabad barring China has few friends that it can truly rely on.
Without acknowledging that owing to years of skewed and jaundiced policies the chickens have simply come home to roost, there is a continuum of the victim syndrome. The recent US drone attack in Balochistan to kill Mullah Mansour was a wakeup call that Washington was fast losing its patience with Islamabad.
That it was a first US drone attack in Balochistan was rightly interpreted as a violation of sovereignty by Islamabad. Nonetheless, it was too late to complain about violation of sovereignty as Pakistan for years has been complicit in the US drone program in our badlands.
On the eve of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sojourn to Washington, the army leadership — in the absence of the prime minister who was recuperating in a London hospital after a quadruple heart bypass surgery — decided to take charge.
The symbolism of summoning of the perennial Sharif consort, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, with the advisors on foreign affairs and defence minister in tow to the GHQ last Tuesday was quite obvious and ominous as well.
The meeting could have easily been held in Islamabad rather than the military’s own abode. But perhaps the COAS, advised by his able image-makers being a master of optics, wanted to drive the message home that the civilians have made a royal mess of things.
The somber expressions on the faces of the ministers attending the meeting bore ample testimony to the displeasure being conveyed to them about the state of affairs. But is it fair to entirely blame the poor ministers for how things stand?
Narendra Modi has had a very successful visit to the US capital. Its outcome for both New Delhi and Washington — blaming Pakistan for harbouring terrorists of all hues and colours and imploring Islamabad to act against India specific terrorist organisations – is significant. It is obvious that our parrot like mantra that we are a victim of terrorism rather than its perpetrator has few buyers on the international scene.
Sharif is being blamed for the mess by assiduously keeping the foreign policy portfolio with him rather than appointing a full time foreign minister. The criticism is partly correct. But only partly so.
The somber expressions on the faces of the ministers attending the meeting bore ample testimony to the displeasure being conveyed to them about the state of affairs
Everyone knows who calls the shots on major regional and foreign policy issues. Hence the military leadership, instead of merely putting the civilians on the mat for their real or perceived incompetence, should do some introspection of their own.
The sooner we concede that our present policies are counterproductive and taking us into a bottomless pit the better it will be. Modi as the prime minister of India is playing his cards well. On one hand he is aggressively purusing economic and trade diplomacy with spectacular results. On the other, he has been successful in painting Pakistan as a perpetrator rather than the victim of terrorism.
The same US Congressmen who a few years back had recommended that Modi’s American visa as chief minister of Gujarat be revoked gave him a standing ovation when he addressed them. This is no favour to Modi but a testament to India’s rising clout in the world.
Much to the detriment of Islamabad, New Delhi is on the verge of getting the membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). The US, Britain and France are supporting its bid.
After the Indian prime minister’s stopovers in Mexico and Switzerland, even they have decided not to oppose India’s entry into the club. The only saving grace for Islamabad is that China is vociferously opposing India’s entry to the NSG.
Islamabad has woken a bit late in the day lobbying for its own inclusion in the NSG. It applied only last month. Since decisions in the exclusive nuclear group are by consensus, Beijing might save the day for Pakistan.
Washington dispatched two of its high-ranking officials including its representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Richard Olson, to Islamabad for some fence mending. The US delegation was told by Sartaj Aziz that the drone attack in Balochistan violated the UN charter and ostensible proofs regarding RAW activities in Pakistan were also shared with the delegation.
However, in the backdrop of the growing credibility gap, serious outstanding issues between Washington and Islamabad will be hard to fix in one meeting. Primarily Washington wants Islamabad to bring the Taliban leadership to the conference table and go after the Haqqani network at the same time.
Policy makers in Washington reckon that Islamabad is unwilling or simply unable to do so. However, harbouring the (bad) Afghan specific Taliban is considered a given by its policy makers.
Former US envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, in a scathing article in the Wall Street Journal, alleges that Pakistan views the Taliban as an effective proxy to ensure its dominance over Afghanistan and to limit Afghan relations with India.
According to Khalilzad, Pakistani officials last year delivered a paper to their Afghan counterparts proposing terms of a new bilateral agreement. He claimed in the article that the terms amounted to a demand that Afghanistan subordinates its sovereignty to Pakistan.
Whatever the truth behind such allegations, there is no gainsaying that Islamabad has diplomatically landed itself in a cul de sac. Pursuing its present India centric mantra is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Allegations about RAW playing havoc in Pakistan, probably not without basis, do not cut much ice with Washington or Kabul who believe that Islamabad is harbouring both India and Afghan specific jhadists.
The civilian and military leadership need cool introspection to devise a cogent way forward. Merely depending upon China to bail us out has its inherent limitations.
Beijing itself is pursuing economic and trade-driven policies. At the same time it is aggressively implementing its strategic goals.
Islamabad has a pivotal role to play in both. Nonetheless, it’s purely security driven policies are grossly counter-productive. Pakistan is a nuclear power with the sixth largest military in the world.
However, without having any hang-ups about its position in the world, real strength is derived from a strong and robust economy; even to sustain a cogent defence. Instead of cherry picking we need to reorient our foreign policy goals. And for a change we should heed to China’s advice if nobody else’s.
Anti-US hysteria is being deliberately orchestrated in our media. A diabolical India-US conspiracy is being hatched to paint Pakistan in a corner according to a section of the ubiquitous punditry.
However, instead of shoring up paranoia, Islamabad should mend its relations with the US as well. And for its own long term good, it should be willing to pay a price.
