Pakistan’s GDP growth is estimated to hover around 4.5 per cent for the current financial year which will be finally decided in the meeting of National Accounts Committee (NAC) likely to meet on May 16.
An official source said the committee would face a tough time in working out the GDP growth for the current financial year as the agriculture production faced a setback while the Pakistan Steel Mill (PSM) remained closed throughout the year.
The government had fixed a GDP growth target of 5.5 per cent for the current financial year. However, despite turn around in law and order situation, improvement in energy supplies and lowering of interest rates, it failed to revive economic activity. The donor agencies estimates present a GDP growth rate in the range of 4 to 4.3 per cent during the current financial year.
The government had set a growth target of 3.9 per cent for the agriculture sector during the current financial year. The water and fertilizer availability improved during the year. However, the growth of main agriculture crops is assessed below one per cent.
The rice and cotton crops failed to achieve the production target. Rice growth declined due to the glut of rice stocks for the last two years. The cotton production on the other hand declined below 10 million bales as compared to 14 million bales last year due to pink bollworm disease. The loss of 4 million bales of cotton would vanish out close to 0.5 per cent GDP growth.
The sugarcane and wheat crops remained closed to the production target. But the crash of the commodity prices did not produce positive results for the growers. The government may get some positive agriculture growth through the livestock sector that has nearly half the share in the sector.
The government agencies both at the federal and provincial level failed to take appropriate measures against the cotton disease that estimated caused a loss of Rs 100 billion to growers. The government failed to provide export avenues to sell off surplus quantity of rice, wheat, sugarcane and vast number of other vegetables and fruits.
The source said the large-scale manufacturing sector yielded some improvement due to the reduction in load shedding but the domestic demand remained suppressed due to the overall economic order. The PSM nearly remained closed throughout the year.
