Following the money trail

Somethings explain themselves

There is no need to spoil one’s sleep over fears of the system collapsing due to an imminent political clash caused by Panama leaks

The initial fall out of the  Panama  leaks in Pakistan  has been significant.  Two years hence the country is going to have its next general elections.  The PMLN was confident of winning the polls  hands down in Punjab on the basis of its development work and also make some  headway in other provinces. The opposition was divided and lacked any important issue to put the government of the defensive. What is more the opposition  was worried that in case the government succeeds in  drastically reducing the  load shedding, PMLN’s  popularity  graph would rise. Suddenly out of the blue the opposition  has been provided with a burning issue that it can use to put the government on the mat.

The issue will continue to roil the government for weeks and months to come but it would be unrealistic to hope that it will lead to a  government change. There is going to be no army coup to remove the government. The army is led by a professional COAS and is busy in dealing with the RAW conspiracies which Raheel Sharif has concluded  are focused on disrupting the all important  CPEC. The General has  shown no inclination to disrupt the system. Conversely he has advised cooperation rather than confrontation between important stake holders. .  Unlike 2014 when certain hawks among the corps commanders had a soft corner for  PTI, the present team   fully support the COAS’ point of view.

Mid-term elections are also ruled out. Keeping in view his past record, Nawaz Sharif should not be expected to  yield on any demand for mid-term polls thus foregoing the gains he expects when development projects mature.  What is more Imran Khan who is deprived of the support of  most of the opposition parties  is not in a position to force the government to hold early polls. The PPP has already shown  it has no desire to take to the streets.

Khursheed Shah has withdrawn the  demand for probe by the CJ assisted by a forensic experts’ team. He now wants a probe by a parliamentary body. This amounts to empower the political elite, involved knee deep in corruption, to  judge their own cases.  It seems funny to make a parliamentary body adjudicate cases of financial corruption. This is indefensible but this is how the high and mighty bale out one another. The proposal draws inspiration from the army’s stand that it possess a fool proof system of accountability and army personnel  involved in such cases can be tried only by the army itself.

The MQM and JUIF  having a visceral antipathy for  Imran Khan will not join  him in an enterprise that can only help PTI if it succeeds in overthrowing the government.    The  PTI rank and file  lack the  spirit  they e possessed in 2014 to undertake  another  adventure.  What is more the party leadership stands divided with some  unwilling to initiate  another costly and prolonged confrontation in months to come. A lengthy  sit-in during what is widely predicted to be an extra hot summer might not be possible.

Despite  the recent display of his customary fireworks Tahirul Qadri will be hesitant this time to put the lives of his  activists in jeopardy at a time when none in the  establishment is willing to encourage adventurism.

The PMLN is willing to negotiate. The party has  tasked its  leaders  to meet specified opposition personalities to plead its case . Ch Nisar who was  to talk to Imran Khan has already exchanged smiles and greetings with the PTI chief who claims he has been permitted to hold the party’s foundation day celebrations in at F-9 Park in Islamabad.  Ishaq Dar is to hold talks with the PPP leadership and Abdul Qadir Baloch and Mushadiluula  to call on  Shujaat and Farooq Sattar.,

But is the PMLN also willing to accept the demand for forensic audit by a reputable firm?

An impenetrable  veil of secrecy hangs around the offshore shell companies. It is normally an uphill task to locate who is the real owner. The  task has however been made easy by  the confessions of Hussain Nawaz who has named the companies owned by him  through which he has conducted his  business. To find whether the initial capital for investments in UK was really raised from the sale of the family’s steel mill in Saudi Arabia might thus  be easy.  But unless the Saudi government cooperates with the forensic auditing it may not be easy to trace where the funds to  set up the steel mill had come from.

If no alternative is left and there is unending pressure from the entire opposition to resolve the matter through forensic audit Nawaz Sharif might also agree to the demand.

But what about the  ownership of the Mayfair Flats in London? Ch Nisar has claimed these are owned by Nawaz Sharif. If the issue is raised in the court, the lawyers will have to argue if  Ch Nisar’s evidence is enough to prove the ownership. Once this is done, Nawaz Sharif will be required to  explain two things. First, why did he fail to mention the property in his statement of assets  submitted to the Election Commission.  Second, why did he fail to pay taxes on the money that was transferred  for the purchase of the property . if Khursheed Shah’s proposal to let a parliamentary body probe the issue is accepted,  Nawaz Sharif  is sure to be declared clean

One of the off shoots of the present  situation Is the issue of the political inheritance in the PMLN.  There were already rumours that Nawaz Sharif wants his daughter to inherit  his political mantle. This was corroborated by the informal  arrangements made by the Prime Minister before proceeding to UK for medical treatment. Maryam Safdar was  to assist   Isahaq Dar who is to take the country’s charge  in the absence of  the Prime Minister. Maryam had come prepared to attend the first meeting called by Dar where she talked authoritatively on all issues and criticised the party for not sufficiently defending  the Sharif family.

It remains to be seen if she is acceptable to the rest of the family. Her  first tweet says the family is united. The sceptics think  it is divided on the issue of the political inheritance.