Shifting of the sands

Is the security paradigm being revised?

In an unprecedented move last week, Pakistani National Security Advisor Naseer Khan Janjua shared an intelligence tipoff with his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval. Janjua warned Doval of 10 Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists who were planning a possible attack in the Indian state of Gujarat.

Security was put on high alert in Gujarat throughout last week in the wake of the alert and several raids were conducted.

A senior journalist Rezaul Hasan Laskar, who is currently with Hindustan Times and reported from Pakistan in the past, believes this is a significant development.

“From what I observed while living and working in Pakistan, some recent developments such as the execution of Mumtaz Qadri and the intelligence alert from the Pakistani NSA about a possible terror attack are very interesting and significant developments,” he said.

Journalist and author Arif Jamal agreed that it signified improvement in Indo-Pak relations.

“Pakistan’s decision to share intelligence with India is symbolically important. This establishes the tradition that the two countries can and should share intelligence on terrorism”, he said.

The move came days after Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz admitted of presence of Taliban leadership in Pakistan. Speaking a Washington’s Council on Foreign Relations think tank, he said: “We have some influence over them because their leadership is in Pakistan and they get some medical facilities. Their families are here.”

Talking about a possible policy shift, he told audience that Pakistan has had enough of them.

“We told the Taliban leaders that we have hosted them enough for 35 years, and we can’t do it anymore because the whole world is blaming us because of their presence here,” he said.

A day before his statement, Pakistan executed the murderer of former Governor Punjab, Salmaan Taseer. Qadri was hanged to death without any prior notice by the government. To contain the reaction, media was forced to censor the Qadri’s funeral procession as well as the protests that followed.

After the Pathankot attack, the Indian media reported that the attackers came from Pakistan. It was later established by the Indian authorities that the attackers belonged to Jaish-e-Muhammad. Unlike before, Pakistan didn’t deny the claim but instead formed a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe into the matter. After a high-ranking meeting, PM Nawaz Sharif ordered action against JeM seminaries and Masood Azhar was taken into custody.

The Counter Terrorism Department of Punjab Police registered an FIR against the alleged attackers and the handlers of the Pathankot attack on February 19. Numbered 06/2016, it was registered at CTD Police Station Gujranwala and no one has been named in the FIR yet.

The Inspector General of Punjab Police, Mushtaq Sukhera, announced a Joint Investigation Team to investigate the case.

Commenting on Masood Azhar not being named in the FIR, he said it was ‘not recommended’ by the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) which was formed after the orders of PM Nawaz Sharif to investigate into the Indian allegations after Pathankot attack.

Sartaj Aziz later revealed that one of the mobile numbers provided by Indian authorities linked to Pathankot attack has been traced to Jaish-e-Muhammad headquarters in Bahawalpur.

All these steps point towards a possible shift in the security paradigm of Pakistan.

“These developments signify a shift. Whether it’s a paradigm shift or not, I’m not sure,” Laskar said. Referring to the Indian perception of these developments, he added, “Many in India, including people who watch Pakistan closely and especially those in security agencies, feel there still aren’t enough indications that Pakistan’s security establishment has given up its policy of turning a blind eye to the activities of anti-India groups.”

Arif Jamal thinks there is reason to believe that this intelligence is not on good jihadists who wage jihad in Indian Kashmir with the help of Pakistan.

“The reason is Pakistan has not abandoned good jihadists like Jamaat-ud-Dawa and others. Moreover, sharing of intelligence is not enough to believe that there is a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s policy of using jihad as an instrument of its defence policy,” Jamal said.

Columnist Dr Muhammad Taqi thinks we have ‘been there, done that’. Musharraf “shifted paradigm” and Pakistan became an enlightened moderate state only to acknowledge five years later that it was still harbouring Taliban.

“He had banned JeM and LeT too,” Taqi says.

Taqi believes proof of the shifting paradigm pudding will lie in its eating.

“We should welcome all Pakistani moves that indicate or proclaim a shift away from backing jihadism but do the proverbial due diligence. Let their actions show that they have taken Afghan Taliban and JeM, JuD to task and are dismantling the military-jihadism complex,” he concluded.