MQM’s political bombshell

Will the cobweb clear?

Mustafa Kamal and Anees Qaimkhani’s press conference was a bombshell, denouncing Altaf Hussain, accusing all senior leaders of being in knowledge of taking funds from RAW, and announcing a new political party. Apart from that, the press conference seemed to be hurriedly held with no name offered to public consumption for the new party and no party flag (the use of national flag as party flag is not allowed by the Political Parties Act). In yet another conference on March 7^th, a new party flag was announced as was joining hands with Dr Saghir, former Provincial Minister Sindh. The public opinion stands sharply divided on the MQM’s political bombshell.

“Is Mustafa Kamal just an agent of change — and not the real change he promises to bring to Karachi?” asks Mushtaq Siddiqi, Editor of The Weekly Pulse. “For me the most important question is: what exactly is the content of the (written?) message which has been delivered from him a few days back to the Army– or the Army Chief?”

In a statement released by Nadeem Nusrat, Convener of the party, he has directly indicted ‘the establishment’ of foul play, “advising the establishment to let go of its politics of dividing the party and instead talk to the party chief.” Dr Farooq Sattar claimed the only aim of the press conference was to pave the way for the minus-Altaf formula for MQM.

“Efforts to shoot the messenger are at full swing. Few, if any, have heard the message. Fewer still have taken the trouble to go beyond its impact on MQM or internal political scene. What shocks me is the questions which have to be asked and answered and the realisation that no one can or will ask them. That is, no one who is in a position to do anything about it simply because all are in it neck deep,” firmly states General Ghulam Mustafa, “Short-term political expediency rather than national or state interests have been the guiding philosophy of our rulers whether in civvies or in uniform. No one justify not moving against MQM when its RAW connection was fully established? Or are Kamal and all others lying through their teeth, in which case they should be dealt with according to the law? Why did our successive governments fail to question UK about its role in harbouring a criminal and actually facilitating him in different ways to harm Pakistan? Is it because of some obscure “national” interests or just plain and simple personal interests of a few?

“And most importantly how could a group of people, put together to coerce opponents into submission, be allowed to wear the facade of a much sought after political party by the governments of the day and what is worse, voted and supported by the people? While the great champion of democracy and all that is considered kosher, UK, has been exposed yet again, for what it is, we in Pakistan have a lot to ponder about. It is quite possible that Mustafa Kamal has been bitten by the bug and he means what he says. It must be verified nevertheless for all the right reasons. All his claims and revelations, nothing new but expressed publicly by an insider for the first time, must also be checked to guard against being played. It is time to haul up establishment if it is true that Mustafa Kamal had been sponsored by them for their own ends. It is also time to sort out those who have played a triple bluff should that be established as the cause of Kamal’s move. For once, things must be taken to their logical conclusion. For once, we deserve a closure. May be it is time for our superior judiciary to move in and help clean up the mess. God knows, our politics of all hues and colours is guilty.”

Lets’ try to step back to look at the bigger canvas.

Starting out as a popular party, drawing strength from middle class Urdu speaking populace, MQM was accused by and large, later, of using strong-arm tactics to maintain and retain its vote bank and to collect funds. Then Haqiqi faction came into existence; many feel this was a measure to cut MQM down to size. Haqiqi challenged MQM and won parts of Malir, total of Landi, Korangi and Lines Area from MQM and turned these into its power bases. With Altaf Hussain and many with him leaving the country and finding refuge in London, the culture and brand of politics changed. The political wing and Rabita Committee became the political face of MQM. MQM was also accused of using militancy to maintain its hold over Karachi.

Fast forwarding Dr Imran Farooq’s murder, “The murder of Imran Farooq and Army /Intelligence and Rangers statements and active operations against MQM suspect activities saw reaction from MQM too. Some cracks in its higher ranks also started emerging,” says a highly placed source on promise of anonymity. “The distancing of Mustafa Kamal and Qaimkhani and Rangers operations in Karachi made Altaf Hussain’s reactions and statements very erratic and unpredictable. Also Governor Ishratul Ibad fell from Altaf’s favour, Altaf also started feeling threatened from the Rabita Committee and there were reshuffles and lot of unease in London and 90 HQ. Allegations about Altaf and MQM’s connections with RAW and MI6 gained currency and MQM’s militant wing though greatly neutralised still managed to guard against any significant defections. The local body elections and MQM’s good performance here showed that inspite of challenges it has managed to retain its vote bank.”

The Minus One formula is not new. Possible contenders from within and without like General Pervez Musharaf, Mustafe Kamal, Governor Sindh and Farooq Sattar etc have been in the air, more so since banning of Altaf’s addresses through media. His ill health, purportedly both physical and mental has been doing the rounds. Entry of Mustafa Kamal and Qaimkhani in such a charged atmosphere from Dubai and holding a press conference reiterating mainly what was already rumoured, adding nothing new to the menu had to ring bells and it did.

Two possible options are being loudly discussed at every forum, media and by the armchair warriors: Offering Mustafa Kamal as a younger, dynamic, administratively proven leader of MQM, relying on major defections within ranks or/and based on Minus One formula. A more ‘acceptable’ MQM. A question poses itself here: Is Mustafa Kamal the horse that leads the charge in chess to pave way for the King? Will MQM cadres accept him as their supremo or will the real king emerge later once Kamal has slashed through the cobwebs? It seems unlikely for him to be accepted vertically and horizontally (with the upper echelons of the party un-contended leading to in-house fighting.)

Two, MQM reacts strongly to the press conference by Kamal and Qaimkhani, (later Dr Saghir) the heat causing knees to buckle, giving reasons for the LEAs and relevant organisations to tighten the noose around MQM’s neck.

In any case many more defections are expected to follow.

“No point in recounting what was said by Mustafa Kamal and Qaimkhani during their press conference and what Nusrat and Farooq Sattar said by way of rebuttal, denial of allegations and levelling of counter allegations,” says another source. He has raised some interesting questions, “What has happened in the recent past that compelled them to take this step? How did Anees get through immigration without being hauled up by law enforcement agencies? If he managed to slip through undetected, (somehow) why has he not been taken in until now? Will they be able to prove the allegations against Altaf Hussain? Will the authorities in Britain cooperate? (Refer to Lord Nazir’s letter to his Home Minister) Will they be able to convince the public in general and the Urdu speaking community in particular that Altaf is the cause of their real or perceived problems? Is this the political death knell of Altaf? How will they influence the political dynamics of Karachi and Sindh in particular and the country in general? Only time will tell what lies ahead.”

One thing is clear, though the puzzle is far from being complete, logical deductions make certain situations more likely than others. The Chinese curse — may you live in interesting times — seems to be very apt for Pakistan’s political kaleidoscope.