Afghan peace

Crunch time

It seems time has already come to put Islamabad’s recent admission – that Pakistan has indeed housed senior Afghan Taliban, but now has also given them the ‘or else’ option – to the test. After all, the outsiders of the QCG (Quadrilateral Coordination Group) can dress up all they want, but there’s little use of going to the party unless the Taliban are game. And, after first postponing the meeting from the first week of February to the first week of March, it has been called off once more because the Taliban refuse to budge till some of their more unacceptable demands are met – lifting restrictions on their leaders, releasing their prisoners and, of course, ending the ‘occupation’.

The Afghans may well be right in dismissing this as ‘a typical pre-negotiations tactic’. But how many times do they expect the Taliban to bluff before suddenly showing up for the talks? Also, since the ‘unequivocal statement’ came from Mullah Mansoor’s faction, the QCG will immediately put the spotlight on Islamabad. Now, especially after Sartaj Aziz’s recent statement, they will expect Pakistan to either arm-twist Mansoor back to the table, or show him the door. And without Pakistan’s, and QCG’s, backing at this point, the Taliban might not find Qatar too hospitable for too long either.

That, presumably, is behind Kabul’s continued optimism. President Ghani is still confident that not only will Mansoor come to talk, but Pakistan and Afghanistan will also resolve their differences. The only other option is continued war, which no party can afford any longer, not even the Taliban with their recent gains. No matter how many cities they take for any number of days, they will never secure power again. And they have Da’ish breathing down their neck. The only way forward is realistic mutual compromise and immediate disarmament. And, significantly, none of the pieces will fall into place unless Pakistan fulfills its recent pledge. It’s crunch time in Afghanistan and once again Pakistan holds the key.