CPEC ambiguity

Some clarity required

Every segment of society has welcomed China’s generosity under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, popularly known as CPEC, but it is going to be under threat from certain quarters that will be deliberately and secretly try to undermine both nations’ interests. Inter-provincial consternation, small provinces’ reservations, government’s blurred and doubtful attitude on it, India-Iran close ties, and some domestic and foreign mischief-makers are obstructing the accomplishment of this mega project. Internal political strife among the claiming stakeholders over the dividends would become more visible as soon as it gathers pace.

Owing to its economic and infrastructural magnitude, CPEC has turned into the cynosure of world soon after its announcement in 2013. Over 46$ billion are ready to be pumped in the lingering economic pendulum of the country. A blessing in disguise, the multi-faceted project will breathe a new life into debt-plunged economy of Pakistan and is sure to benefit the whole Central Asian region.

China envisages uplifting mainly its easternmost region — a hotbed for its non-state actors, indulged in armed resistance to an extent and have been unnerving the Chinese government for years — lacking in infrastructure. Linking its Xinjiang region with Pakistani Gwadar port is its core interest. CPEC has two routes – as we are told — i.e., eastern and western routes.

The whole row inside the country revolves around the western route from Attock to DI Khan in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and to Zhob, Qilla Saifullah, Pishin and Quetta in Balochistan while eastern route is largely in Punjab and Sindh. No space is allocated to Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir. How unfortunate it is!

There has been very little revealed so far about details of progress in CPEC projects. And interestingly, even this little is creating disquiet among small provinces i.e., KP and Balochistan. Examining the reservations of these provinces and their sentiments unravels the decades-long mistrust between federation and these provinces, prompted by the maltreatment of civil and military establishment and their tilted behaviours. Their demands for the equitable share are not unfair. The Pathan and the Baloch seem to be ready for revolt this time if they are denied what they are demanding. The discourse they adopted that Punjab is grabbing their due rights is not new. Some reports suggest that Chinese interest lies more in the eastern route due to its stable security situation and developed infrastructure. The western route is more vulnerable to security threats due to absence of infrastructure. The same region has remained backward for decades. China’s generosity would be decisive if there is a will to win. It deserves maximum chunk. The results would be long lasting even if it takes some time to lavish the country with the best outcome.

Nothing has been uttered so far about the Gilgit-Baltistan’s share in CPEC. Albeit little rise in literacy rate can be seen there but the situation is much more dire. Somehow it resembles that of Balochistan. Indian claim to call Gilgit-Baltistan a disputed territory and showing it to the world – in its recent published map — as India’s part is more than dangerous. Incessant ignorance from the federal government will further stoke the India’s claim and enrage patriot Baltis.

Two years have already elapsed and even the details are available nowhere. Not to speak of people, authorities as high as State Bank governor is blind to any details. Talking to a news agency, he expressed his ignorance of the modes of investment and more, like how much of this $46 billion is a loan or a donation. Chief Ministers of KP and Balochistan have also voiced their concerns over their ignorance of many details. Not to malign the Sharif Brothers for all the blurriness over the project, their vertical favouritism and over-romance with the Punjabis is an open secret. They seem to bet anything in order to secure Punjab as the powerhouse of their ‘kingdom’ which grants the license to rule the whole county. They may be having some unique plans for the country in their scheme of things, but their seemingly deliberate act of not unfolding the hard facts of CPEC developments looks elusive. Conspiracy mongers murmur that the Sharifs are tasked by their ‘masters’ to sew this project in its very infancy. They are not necessarily right but Nawaz Sharif’s eagerness for working relationship with Modi Sarkar and secret one-on-one meetings between the two premiers have disturbed many. The sceptics cannot be bypassed.

The two neighbouring countries of Pakistan, Iran and India, are already set to rev up their bilateral relations. India’s interests in Chahabar port of Iran can be called as its counter strategy towards China. India smells that China is encircling it with its Strings of Pearls (an unannounced Chinese strategy to consolidate the regional ports for economic implications). Counting the effects of CPEC and its impacts on the economy of Pakistan, India is now feeling insecure, at least psychologically. It has long been involved in the construction and maintenance of Chabahar port, which Delhi uses as a transit point to Afghanistan. Chabahar port has become all the more essential to India since China agreed to formally assume control over Pakistan’s Gwadar port.

Chabahar port is located in Sistan-Balochistan province on Iran’s southeastern coast and is of great strategic utility for India who can bypass Pakistan to get sea-land access route to Afghanistan.

China has also offered Iran investment of worth $78 million to upgrade its Chahabar port mainly aiming to diffuse the Indian influence. Chinese president’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia and Iran and signing of billion dollar projects with the both countries will also reshape the socioeconomic environment of the region. The fast-changing regional circumstances whether political or economic, a new wave of terrorism, the perpetual opposition to CPEC from the locals and insurgency in Balochistan can hamper the ongoing progress of corridor. The fear will remain looming if, God forbid, the CPEC project fails to accord Pakistan the intended benefits. Let’s hope for the best.