Why Gwadar and why not Chabahar?

A win-win for Islamabad and Beijing

It seems Iran President Hassan Rouhani’s offer to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, for using the Chabahar Port as a transit route instead of Gwadar Port has attracted a lacklustre response from Beijing.

My story, published in Pakistan Today on January 31, about China’s consideration for the offer, forwarded by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani for a new trade route linking Xinjiang Province with Iran’s Chabahar Port, as political parties and provincial governments here continue to squabble, triggered a debate if Chabahar Port could replace Gwadar Port.

However, China has scuttled this debate, once and for all.

A senior Chinese official has informed me that China stands by its commitment to Pakistan. He said that CPEC would remain a flagship project of the One Belt and One Road (OBOR) initiative and Iran’s lucrative offer cannot unsettle this ‘all weather’ relationship between China and Pakistan.

“We stand ready to work with Pakistan to complete the projects under construction and make long-term plans to ensure that the building of the corridor continues to deliver new achievements,” the official concluded.

The corridor, after completion, will serve as a primary trade route between China, Middle East and Africa through Pakistan. However, it is not a mere transit route but a comprehensive package involving road and railway links, energy projects, information technology parks, metro bus and orange line rail networks, in addition to education scholarships and jobs.

CPEC was an important decision taken jointly by Pakistan and China. One side cannot withdraw from this inter-state commitment, which has sovereign guarantees.

As a long-term and systematic project, CPEC needs scientific planning before being implemented step-by-step.

CPEC is a total package — from road and rail infrastructure to energy projects, free economic zones, textile and cotton zone, technology transfer, education scholarships and skill building opportunities for Pakistani youth.

China is most likely to support future projects including Diamer-Bhasha Dam, construction of which would involve billions of dollars.

During the 5th JCC meeting, China and Pakistan agreed on certain strategic projects which can’t be shared now. Other than energy projects of $38 billion, $10 billion is being invested to develop Gwadar. While Pakistan is developing the missing links of the trade route, China would also construct new roads. Moreover, the establishment of special economic and industrial zones is a part of the third phase. China would also relocate its industries and textiles in Pakistan worth billions of dollars.

Tong Liang, a Chinese journalist exclusively covering CPEC, said that if there is one word that can best describe the repercussion that President Xi’s visit to Iran has brought about in Pakistan, it has to be paranoia, as if China, finally tired of the political wrangling in Pakistan, is now actively seeking or readily accepting Iran’s Chabahar in place of Gwadar as its long sought access to the warm Arabian Sea, thus showering the prospect of CPEC with a layer of fine dust.

The argument that Chabahar may replace Gwadar is based on the flawed assumption that vitality of CPEC hinges on nothing but Gwadar, which cannot be further from the truth.

Just as Xi presented in the national assembly on April 21 last year, Gwadar is part of CPEC (together with energy, communication infrastructure and industrial zones), not vice versa. Even in the worst scenario, were Gwadar replaced by Chabahar, CPEC would not be axed due to its nature as an economic corridor rather than transit or transport corridor.

There are multiple reasons why replacing Gwadar would be a far too distant dream for Chabahar; below are just two of them.

Tong said politically it is not a host country’s domestic cohesion but its bilateral relations with China that decide its attractiveness as a host country.

And it is no happy coincidence that China chose Pakistan as the pilot country to fire the first salvo of its One Belt One Road initiative in the first place. Looking a little bit over the chocking smokescreen of relentless political disagreement over which route CPEC should take in particular is the cross-party consensus that China is Pakistan’s iron brother and CPEC is Pakistan’s gold hope.

That partly explains why the wild fire of political wrangling has not yet engulfed China and is limited to the domestic level, despite some external manipulation. One doesn’t need to quite exhaust his or her imagination to think of the consequence that a similar lack of internal agreement can have on the project as a whole if it were taken in Iran or any other country, falling short of enjoying such special relations with China.

Whether it is OBOR in general or CPEC in particular, it is China’s first attempt ever in history to invest on such a massive scale in other countries. China is not experienced in this process and Pakistan is the only country that allows room for trial and errors.

Geographically, using Iran as the outreach to the sea would inevitably involve travelling through either all the Central Asia Republics — notorious for slow border clearing, etc — or Afghanistan, whose security condition and inhospitable terrain rule it out.

Tong said if the paranoia was purposefully created to pressurise Pakistan’s politicians to get back to the track of constructing rather than dividing CPEC, it would be at least a well intentioned try, even though the target audience would be clever enough to understand what even a layman journalist can argue here, thus making this warning shot ineffective at best.

However, if this paranoia was developed to create a misconception that China is an opportunist partner that can easily abandon its commitment to Pakistan simply in an effort to pick a lower hanging fruit, it is time that common sense should prevail to convince us otherwise.

Noted analyst Abdul Qayyum Khan Kundi says that Gwadar port offers more strategic and economic benefits to China as compared to Iranian Chabahar port.

So China will prefer to focus on CPEC with Gwadar as a port of call but at the same time it would try to develop an oil and gas pipeline from Iran to Western China. This will also cater to some of Pakistan’s own energy needs, he added.

Pakistan’s promise to develop a 1000-strong security-arm specifically for CPEC will ensure peaceful operations.

Commenting over Iran’s offer, Kundi that from Chabahar goods have to travel either north to Turkey and then to Europe or travel east to reach Central Asia via Afghanistan.

It does not add value to Chinese plans because they already have a route going to Europe via Kazakhstan. It has more value for India because it is left out by Pakistan. Kundi said China wants to include Iran in its one belt one road initiative but it did not elaborate how.

“In my view, it will be a pipeline running from Iran to Western China along the road that is being built. This way it will be easier to protect as there will be a special force of 10,000 developed for CPEC,” he elaborated.

Lastly, Baloch separatists have also welcomed the Chinese investment and are eager to be part of it. China understands that democracies have competing forces and it has been an investor in many troubled African nations as well.

While China again is proving its commitment to Pakistan, it is time for our political and military leadership to rise above all petty personal objectives and grasp this opportunity, which is a win-win for Islamabad and Beijing.