Point of convergence
The good news from Afghanistan is that the peace process has gone one step ahead; last time it broke down after the first huddle (in Murree). But now the US, China, Afghanistan and Pakistan are clearly committed to bringing a negotiated political end to this long war. Even Kabul, which raised objections about Pakistan’s ‘facilitation’ and wanted one-on-one talks with the Taliban, has come round to willingly accepting the arrangement; with a little nudging from foreign friends no doubt. And the Taliban, too, have not ruled out participation at a later date despite their many internal contradictions and compulsions.
Yet while there is a shared understanding that this is the last real window of peace in this conflict, there is also the realisation that negotiations will be very complicated and there is a slim chance, really, of outright success. Analysts have rightly pointed out that the Taliban will not talk till there is a military stalemate, at least, on the ground. Presently government forces are on the back foot, and insurgents control the largest territory since their government collapsed in ’01. They have gained so much momentum this year that the fighting did not stop for the usual winter lull either.
Yet they have also realised by now that no matter how much their fortunes improve they will never take Kabul again. And even if, on the odd occasion, they can win a provincial capital, they are eventually beaten out of it. That, and the fact that both sides have lost thousands of men, might just push the government and insurgents into a ceasefire agreement. Sunday’s suicide attack that killed 13 and the rocket attack near the Italian embassy in Kabul were ominous reminders of the high stakes. All sides must agree on the minimum point of convergence; that a truce must immediately take place even if negotiations linger, so needless deaths can stop at least.
