Afghanistan quagmire

How Pakistan can play its cards right

Revising his initial policy, in a significant press conference held in October, President Barak Obama announced that the US military would continue its engagement in Afghanistan and the task of pulling the troops would be left to his successors. United States was prompted to wage a global war on terror after being attacked by al-Qaeda operatives on 9/11. The hallmarks of the US strategy in the region constituted of dismantling and defeating al-Qaeda, destroying the safe havens of its affiliates, hunting down Osama bin Laden and removing Taliban regime in Afghanistan. After spending more than $685.6 billion in what has become the longest war in its history, the prospects of US operation in Afghanistan are highly questionable if not utterly disappointing.

The region continues to be highly divided and dangerously volatile as Taliban still have a significant footprint in Afghanistan. According to the startling revelation made by the editor of The Long War Journal, Bill Roggio, “Taliban probably either control or heavily influence about a half of the country.” Moreover, recent seizure of a strategically important city like Kunduz even after fourteen-year long involvement of US military forces in the country puts a question mark on the efficacy of use of force as a viable instrument to contain terrorism and to maintain peace in the region.

Regardless of which policy US adopts while dealing with Afghanistan, history bears evidence that an instable Afghanistan translates into border skirmishes, increased militancy and volatility and tremendous influx of refugees for Pakistan. It is an undeniable fact that future prospects of Pakistan are highly intertwined with the stability in Afghanistan. Hence, it is imperative for the Pakistani government to closely collaborate with the US and other countries to work towards regional stability.

Pakistan is the third worst terrorist hit country in the world. Last year, in one of the deadliest terrorist attacks on its soil, the Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) attacked Army Public School in Peshawar and massacred 141 children. Without giving in, Pakistan Army has continued to valiantly fight the Islamist insurgents under Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Only after one year, the military operation has resulted in killing around three thousand terrorists and destroying eight hundred terrorist hideouts. The world has to recognise and appreciate Pakistan’s progress to root out terrorism from its soil, especially when the country also faces credible threat from the other side of the border as India becomes increasingly hostile.

There is a dire for Pakistan to create positive space for itself in the global arena. Due to the geostrategic position of Pakistan, US military troops extension in Afghanistan can inevitably create a greater dependency on Pakistan, which, in the light of Pakistan’s revised counterterrorism strategy, can leverage and grossly benefit from. Provision of the coalition support funds by the US should not be the sole compensation for the country. Pakistan has a genuine interest to root out terrorism and play an effective role in stabilising the region. However, Pakistan can’t undertake these initiatives without the support and encouragement of the international community.

Rebooting its image, Pakistan can champion a regional strategic dialogue bringing all stakeholders like Afghanistan, US, China, India and Russia together to develop simulations for the peaceful post-US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Growth and expansion of ISIS in the region is another area that requires global collaboration. The presence of US forces in the region can act as a deterrent to the ISIS; however, it is also a possibility that ISIS might wage a full scale active war against the US forces. Given the truly extraterritorial and transnational nature of their agenda, this possibility poses an immense security threat to Pakistan. Hence, Pakistan needs to craft a narrative that places it as a critical stakeholder in any discussions for future peace arrangement in the region. If successful, Pakistan can leverage its position to counter India’s growing influence in Afghanistan India and ensure that the Afghani soil is not used against Pakistan’s interests.

For embarking upon any regional peace initiatives, Pakistan has to categorically denounce support and assistance to all terrorist factions and non-state actors. The rise of Taliban in Afghanistan and the dwindling efforts by US to contain terrorism can prove to be blessing in disguise for Pakistan. It provides Pakistan with the perfect opportunity to prove its mantle, cater to the trust deficit and position itself as a responsible and shrewd player in global politics. If all goes well, Pakistan may as well be the country that finally defeats the ghosts of wars in the region.