At it again
New Delhi’s summoning of Pakistani High Commissioner Abdul Basit – to protest alleged ‘unprovoked Pakistani firing’ – was instructive as far as the upcoming national security advisors’ meeting is concerned. Pakistan has complained about Indian cross LoC and Working Boundary aggression for months. Islamabad has taken this case all the way to the UN. And, as Basit rightly reminded the Indian government, the eastern neighbour was responsible for 70 such violations in July and August alone. Therefore, India playing this card so close to the NSA talks suggests that expecting too much might not be too wise.
Significantly, while both sides have clearly taken maximialist positions, India’s stance has shifted since Modi came to power. The minus-Hurriyet condition, dodging Kashmir in talks, border escalation, etc, confirm fears that BJP would pursue anti-Pakistan politics even as Nawaz initially pitched for greater interaction and commerce. Also, the provocative mention of the ’71 war in Dhaka, and now plans to celebrate the ’65 war, are deliberate, planned moves that please a particular audience. Yet the BJP needs to be careful, for its own sake, of overplaying this strategy. India is a very diverse polity. And regional policy built on extreme right of centre dogma will not sit well across the board.
Fortunately, the two prime ministers have chosen – despite the setbacks – to push the process of talks forward; that is why Ufa was so important. And since Nawaz has made his intentions clear since before he went to Delhi for Modi’s inauguration, the latter effectively holds the key to constructive engagement. So far Modi has shifted back and forth. He has postured towards serious negotiations then gone back to send signals that break the peace. The world’s largest democracy must incorporate a wider representation of popular opinion in its foreign policy than the views of the extreme conservative bloc. The NSA meeting will tell a lot. If both sides agree to include the other’s core demands, then progress might be possible in the present cycle. But if there’s only more finger pointing, it will be a while before the two sides seriously sit down to talk again.
