India and Pakistan need to reassure and support each other
India was quick to point the finger at Pakistan immediately after the terrorist attack on a police station in its town of Dinanagar in Gurdaspur District. In support of its allegation India pointed out that the attackers came from Pakistan across the monsoon floods swollen River Ravi and left behind enough evidence to link Pakistan to the attack. Pakistan was among the first to condemn the attack and refute the Indian allegations of its involvement. Just before the attack an Indian drone on a surveillance mission over Pakistan’s Kashmir had been shot down and Pakistan was preparing to go to the UN Security Council with proof of Indian involvement in subversive activities to undermine Pakistan. The perception quickly grew that the Dinanager incident was a false flag operation to target, malign and discredit Pakistan. Since then this perception has gained considerable ground.
Pakistan has to be moronic to order a blatant high profile terrorist action in India just when its diplomacy is making gains in Afghanistan and its relationship with the US is stabilising and it is getting ready to start implementation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan would also have to be extremely naïve to risk an attack across a river that is hazardous to cross in the monsoon season and the crossing leads to the fortified and fenced international border. Equally inexplicable is the ‘incriminating evidence’ conveniently left behind by the attackers who must have known that they could not possibly survive.
No one in India is talking about other possibilities like another Sikh uprising in Punjab where Gurdaspur is located and where there is a majority Sikh population. Kashmiri freedom fighters from the Indian-Held Kashmir area, fed up of atrocities against them, could also have decided to carry their struggle beyond Kashmir and deeper into India. There are also radical Hindu militant organisations that are the driver behind hostility with Pakistan and are a support base for the Modi government and opposed to any negotiations or talks with Pakistan. It must, however, be noted that there are other militant groups that are against an improvement in India-Pakistan relations simply because they thrive in an environment of conflict and hostility.
The trouble is that post such incidents both India and Pakistan follow a predictable trajectory and this is what those behind such attacks count on. Neither the media nor the politicians disappoint them as they go into a frenzy of accusations and counter accusations after each such event. India has never agreed to a joint arrangement to investigate such incidents. In the current environment it is truly regrettable that India has not understood the paradigm shift that has taken place in Pakistan in its policies aimed at ensuring internal security and stability and an improvement in its bilateral relation with all its neighbours—especially India and Afghanistan. Unless this shift is understood and acknowledged, the Indian attitude towards Pakistan will not change and without a change in this attitude, there can be no meaningful progress in talks and more ominously non state actors or those opposed to talks and negotiations will continue to exploit opportunities like Dinanagar.
There are some facts staring us in the face and it would be folly not to heed them. Two nuclear weapon states should not, cannot and must not think of conflict situations that were possible before they became nuclear weapon states. Ideas like limited war under the nuclear umbrella or punitive strikes of some kind are Quixotic and could trigger a nuclear exchange if implemented and especially if they achieved success or even if they failed with dire consequences for the aggressor. One could assume that the political and military leadership on both sides understands this simple scenario. By now it should also be clear to both Pakistan and India that a regional approach is required to counter and sideline terrorism.
Instead of fretting over Pakistan’s success in the war against terror, the improvement in its economy and its positive diplomacy, India needs to reach out with reassurance and support to Pakistan. The reciprocity that this will generate is sure to move the India-Pakistan relationship on a sustainable track. One positive indicator is that the projected meeting between the national security advisers has not been scuttled and that the Prime Minister of India is scheduled to be in Pakistan for next year’s SAARC meeting in Islamabad. It is most important for India to correctly read the many signs of the change in Pakistan’s policy outlook and the politico-military resolve behind this change that is now irreversible.
