Are we heading towards a ‘hard coup’ in Pakistan?

Return to proto-democracy inevitable?

Since independence in 1947, Pakistan’s powerful military has directly ruled the country for more than three decades. This has entrenched the dominance of the military over the political process, policymaking, and administrative apparatus of the country.

The Pakistan’s army believes that the foreign and security policies of the country are its exclusive domain. It does not like the political leadership to poke its nose in spheres and management of military affairs.

The constitution of Pakistan clearly states that the military will work under the federal government. However, in practice it is exactly the opposite because during much of country’s history Pakistan’s federal government has been under the influence and control of the military establishment.

Keeping formal lines of authority aside, it cannot be ruled out starting from appointments to budgets and operations of the leading military intelligence agencies – military intelligence (MI) and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) are controlled by the GHQ and not the civilian chief executive of the country.

Whenever civilian governments have tried to engineer a policy shift in Pakistan’s foreign affairs and security calculus, efforts have failed, except during a brief period from 1973-1977 under the premiership of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto who controlled and directed the country’s foreign and security affairs.

However, the first peaceful and democratic transfer of power in Pakistan’s history took place recently in 2013.

Musharraf’s trial and trade with India

Political analyst Anjum Rasheed told DNA that soon after coming to power the PML-N government enraged the military establishment by ordering the trial of former dictator Pervez Musharraf for treason, pushing for deeper trade ties with arch rivals India and allegedly siding with the country’s biggest TV channel which accused the army of trying to kill one of its journalists Hamid Mir.

The Pakistan’s army believes that the foreign and security policies of the country are its exclusive domain

“Later, as we saw, the government had to shelve the idea of better trade ties with India and it also did not follow the treason case against the former dictator”, he said.

He added that we have witnessed in the recent past that whenever foreign dignitaries visit Pakistan they make a point of meeting the army chief.

“It seems that Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan is presently more powerful than the prime minister because he is directly in touch with the army and the military establishment during the ongoing war against terrorism,” added Rasheed.

Imran and Qadri saga

Leading political and defence analysts believe that a soft coup has already taken place. It occurred during the PTI dharna in Islamabad when the prime minister’s office seceded control over pivotal ministries including foreign ministry and national security to the military establishment in exchange for an extended lease on political life.

Political analyst Marvi Sirmed told DNA that a ‘soft coup’ has been in place quite some time. Even before the dharna when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif tried to reach out to India and Afghanistan. With the PTI and PAT dharna it was made possible to pull out whatever teeth the PM and his party had.

21^st constitutional amendment

Pakistan’s National Assembly and the Senate approved the 21^st Constitutional amendment on January 6, 2015, and the Pakistan army amendment bill 2015 in the aftermath of the Peshawar carnage, paving the way for the formation of military courts.

The bill allows for military courts, under a military officer, to preside over terror-related cases for two years.

“There was no looking back. The 21^st amendment, the apex committees under NAP, arm twisting of PPP government in Sindh, cutting MQM down to size, etc, are all part of the same strategy of muzzling down the political government, and not just the government, rather all political fabric, every political party, every politician is being targeted by this organised vilification campaign,” said Sirmed.

Since progressive elements of civil society have been major dissenters against the state’s security policies and tilted civil military relations towards the military establishment, it was necessary to silence them too. Hence you see media-targeting and impersonation of civil society through proxies in social media, intelligentsia and political parties, she added.

Constitutional expert Waqqas Mir, however, feels otherwise. He said there is no ‘soft coup’ in Pakistan. But we are moving towards one. “Pakistan’s real problem remains the civil-military imbalance,” said Mir adding that Prime Minister Nawaz should have supported the political leaders of the opposition parties in Sindh including MQM’s Altaf Hussain and former president Asif Ali Zardari. They expressed concern that Rangers and army were misusing their power in Sindh because when the operation will move to Punjab he might not have the support of the opposition parties.

Since progressive elements of civil society have been major dissenters against the state’s security policies and tilted civil military relations towards the military establishment, it was necessary to silence them too

Answering the question about the formation of apex committees and military courts, he said it is the civilian government which passed the 21^st amendment and it is the success of political democratic parties that these courts were formed for two years only.

Are we heading towards a ‘hard coup?’

For political economist Mobeen Chughtai, the present leadership of the army is not “ambitious”, as was the case with previous military leaders. In fact, some of the more ambitious generals were allowed to retire before the recent, more direct, strategy of soft intervention was put into effect.

“I have faith that this present army leadership has, in keeping with its much vaunted professionalism, studied its mistakes in the past and will move mountains in order for them to not be repeated. I have faith that this new army leadership will not throw out the baby with the bathwater, again,” said Chughtai, adding that experience has shown that as soon as a general — any general — takes over the reins of power, he initiates for himself a countdown.

He added that even generals like Pervez Musharraf, the self-avowed messiah of mass media in Pakistan and a man very concerned with his public perception, simply could not turn back time when his turn ended. That is because our society does not permit or accept dictatorships past a certain ‘honeymoon period’. A return to this proto-democracy is inevitable. And the army understands this now.

“Why line yourself up for a fall when you can control strategic policymaking without the baggage?” Chughtai asked.

Agreeing to what Chughtai predicted, Sirmed said that in such scenarios, when every civilian force has been made to fight each other on frivolous issues, it is a day sweeter than honey for the military establishment. She didn’t think they needed to wage a hard coup any time soon.

This is a perfect scenario for the military. They do everything, all major decisions on national security, foreign affairs and much on the domestic turf as well, said Sirmed, “They take the credit for everything good that might be happening while the civilian government is there to take the blame for everything bad. It is more than ideal for military.”

Political analyst Salman Abid fears a ‘soft coup’ too if the civilian government fails to deliver. “Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is ceremonial and the military will take the important decisions related to foreign policy and security,” he said.

Adding to what Salman stated, Anjum Rasheed told DNA that he fears that the soft coup might convert to hard coup if things continue like this.

“If MQM and PPP are taken to task in Sindh then by the time the operation reaches Punjab PML-N will lose the support of the opposition parties and secondly, the political leadership will become extremely unpopular amongst the masses, which would pave the way for another military takeover in the country,” said Rasheed.