Afghan chapter
The Afghan Taliban’s dual policy continues to confuse stakeholders near and far. On the one had is its usual Spring Offensive; just that this is more spirited and, considering that it is the first post-nato combat mission push, it is also the most potent. Kunduz and Badakhshan stand ready to fall like dominos, and there is the risk of Helmand following the same route sooner rather than later. The Afghan army is clearly not ready to handle things on its own. Perhaps that is one reason the Taliban were not willing to stop the fighting for Ramzan.
On the other hand, though, the Taliban leadership is also still open for talks. In fact, as Sartaj Aziz enlightened the national assembly standing committee on foreign affairs the other day, Pakistan only recently facilitated a secret meeting between senior government and Taliban representatives. But since the meeting took place in the north western Chinese city of Urmuqi, it remains unclear who had the greater role to play. Beijing has been forwarding workable solutions for some time now, and may well have led the initiative. Still, there are more talks to follow, and Aziz, at least, expects results in no more than three months, which if true would be a very welcome development.
Whether or not this duality stems from a split within the Taliban or represents a well crafted policy is not yet clear. What is crystal clear, though, is that President Ghani is already under immense pressure, and the main reason is his Pakistan policy. The NDS’s agreement with ISI and Kabul’s closeness to Islamabad have unnerved skeptics from Kabul to New Delhi to Washington. There are concerns that Pakistan is not delivering its side of the bargain, and its notorious strategic depth policy has only been changed at best, not shelved. While Pakistan can do little more than share timely intel and play its part in pushing the Afghan Taliban to stop fighting, it is eventually up to Kabul to ensure its army is fighting fit. Part of the Taliban’s compulsion to fight at certain fronts is the looming threat of IS, and the prospect of losing fighters to it. There is little Pakistan can do about such developments. Still the two countries must do all they can to address each other’s concerns. This is a one time opportunity and, if wasted, the confrontation of Karzai’s days will return quickly. The Taliban novelty must not be allowed to upset the good work done so far.
