One year of Operation Zarb-e-Azb

Consolidating gains

Nobody expected Operation Zarb-e-Azb to be a short term proposition. The most striking aspect of the operation was the categorical note adopted by the Pakistan army, denouncing terrorism in all forms and manifestations. It needs to be recalled that the army had resisted the need to win back North Waziristan, which has been associated with the Haqqani group and other outfits, allegedly valued by military establishment as strategic assets.

Defence and political analyst, Wajahat Masood told DNA that the emergence of dharna politics immediately after the launching of operation Zarb-e-Azb dampened the focus on the menace of religious extremism. However, the Peshawar Army Public School incident in mid-December brought back the desired impetus in military action against terrorist outfits.

An important related development was the passage of the 21^st constitutional amendment, ushering in military courts and an elaborate national action plan. The second phase of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in 2015 also coincided with steps against violence in Karachi.

“The impact of military courts on the course of the national campaign against terrorism is yet to be seen. However, the military action has definitely disrupted the terror network, besides killing or capturing important terrorist characters. As of now, it appears to be a long term initiative, which will test the nerves, resolve and resources of the nation,” said Masood.

He added that reportedly, a large number terrorists are captured in area outside Fata and cities however, no concrete evidence has been put on record and well known terrorist assets are still at large and many groups continue to allegedly enjoy a soft corner in the echelons of power and policy.

Outlawed groups and a myriad terrorist outfits have been on the national scene for too long not to be in liaison with mainstream political parties, and it is very likely that such links are still at play. Only consistent state policy can disrupt and eliminate covert threats of violence and terror.

Outlawed groups and a myriad terrorist outfits have been on the national scene for too long not to be in liaison with mainstream political parties, and it is very likely that such links are still at play

According to ISPR, North Waziristan and Khyber Agency, including Tirah Valley, have been cleared of terrorists during the first year of Zarb-e-Azb.

“A small number of terrorists are presently hiding at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border near Dadukhel and operations are being launched against them as well,” an ISPR official told DNA.

The official said that more than 2,800 terrorists have been killed in the first year of Zarb-e-Azb and 340 officials of the Pakistan army were martyred.

Historically, there have of course been doubts about information coming from a primarily military source for the consumption of civilians.

Throughout the world, militaries are not known for being wellsprings of information — quite the converse, really. In the specific context of Pakistan, it is no secret that under specific military regimes, information clampdown or censorship has been quite the hallmark.

Reviewing one year of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, political analyst Marvi Sirmed said that when the operation started last year, we were told, in brief press release by ISPR that the main objective of the Operation was to dismantle terrorist networks and their sanctuaries from NWA. On the completion of 150 days of the Operation, media was told that 90 percent area had been cleared.

“After a year, progress stands where it was last year. After so many casualties of our soldiers, we have no idea where the operation stands because the fight keeps recurring in area already declared ‘clear’ by army. Tirah valley is a case in point,” she added.

There is a very little transparency on Zarb-e-Azb. Media is informed about the casualties in mostly one liners issued by ISPR. No questioning and no access to information are being allowed. In this situation, there is very little that can be commented on.

“The operation has effects in the rest of the country in terms of a sudden influx of people in Karachi, Islamabad and different areas of Punjab too. The issue of IDPs affects both hosts in the cities as well as migrants. The lingering operation without any accountability and transparency is adding to the problem rather than the solution,” said Sirmed.

She urged the need for parliament to be briefed on the progress of Zarb-e-Azb alongside the budget incurred so far, our soldiers’ casualties and concrete results that have been achieved.

However, defence analyst Muhammad Amir Rana thinks otherwise. “The infrastructure of the militant outfits has been destroyed because of the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb, which gave the impression that we are only receiving information from ISPR, which is not true,” he said.

Rana added that the main objectives of the operation were met in the first year which was to win back the lost territory from the clutches of militant outfits.

Commenting on prospects of the operation moving on to urban areas, political economist from Lahore University of Management and Sciences (LUMS) Mobeen Ahmed Chughtai, told DNA that other than the particular case of Karachi — if the “operation” was to be moved into the urban areas then it would have been done by now. Standard guerrilla tactics suggest that weaker guerrilla opponents quickly vacate areas where conventional armies concentrate in numbers or achieve tactical superiority.

These terrorists have safe havens across the borders of Pakistan — borders which are naturally and culturally too porous for tight patrolling to have any effect, he added.

“The urban operations should have started weeks ago, realistically. But they haven’t, which raises concerns over whether past selective definition of targets is being reconsidered within the corridors of power,” said Chughtai.

Answering a question about affiliations of political parties with extremist groups, Chughtai added that as far as the connection between political parties and extremist groups are concerned — one needs to understand that it is an inescapable consequence of the form of politics practiced in Pakistan.

Rumi said these operations require effective policing and intelligence coordination through civilian platforms such as NACTA that remain underfunded and weak

“To expect a Pakistani political party to cut off ties from extremist groups of one form or another, under this current political paradigm, is like expecting an entrepreneur to forgo investment capital and yet achieve business growth,” said Chughtai.

It does not happen. To separate political parties from religious or ultra-nationalist extremist backing requires several measures that we, as a society, have considered forbidden and unholy. This, despite glaring evidence from nations who pursued such policies and are, today, enjoying the fruits of more robust systems of administration and more representative forms of governance.

“But since the operation is not really spearheaded by the political elite and finds its actual primary motivation from within the Pakistani establishment — the day it is directed towards any particular nexus – ‘political’ considerations will, effectively speaking, go out the window,” he added.

For analyst Raza Rumi, Zarb-e-Azb was surely a defining moment for Pakistan. “Thus far the achievements have been solid. Much of North Waziristan has been cleared and TTP is on the defensive. This has also led to the undoing of transnational terror networks that were operating there for many years,” said Rumi.

He added that the reasons for delay, however, have not been fully made public. Also, the major problem with the results is that it remains a no-go area for local media and therefore the outcomes cannot be fully verified. Secondly, the affiliates of TTP such as sectarian groups are yet to be dismantled and can be found everywhere in the mainland of Pakistan — from South Punjab to Karachi and from Balochistan to central Punjab.

Rumi said these operations require effective policing and intelligence coordination through civilian platforms such as NACTA that remain underfunded and weak. There is also the larger issue of tackling the ideological base of militants i.e., the madrassas.

The latter not only provide the justification for militancy but also provide the manpower that is required by militant groups. It is unclear whether the army or the government are committed to regulating the seminaries and bringing them under state control. Unless that is done the results of Zarb-e-Azb will not be consolidated, he said.