India lures Pakistan into brinkmanship

Who will ‘chicken out’ first?

Pakistan and India relations are back to square one. Once again both the neighbouring states with extensive nuclear arsenals have got involved in verbal attacks on one another, increasing the possibility of a conflict between the two states.

The verbal attacks and open confessions coming from India about the blatant involvement of its security apparatus in acts of terrorism and subversion on Pakistani soil suggests that the Indian regime is trying to lure Pakistan into brinkmanship, also called “The chicken-game”.

The situation has been further aggravated by the volley of inciting admissions by Indian ministers and prime minister Narendra Modi regarding the 1971 war in East Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh. The vitriol by Indian ministers has led to further complication of the situation and old wounds are bleeding again.

The sequence of recent events suggests that India – using its international influence and muscle – is bent upon subverting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which can be a game changer for Pakistan’s future economic and infrastructural development.

In order to achieve its objective of getting the CPEC stalled, India is now luring Pakistan into brinkmanship or a ‘chicken-game’. It remains to be seen who will win this game of nerves?

What is brinkmanship?

Brinkmanship is the practice of pushing dangerous events to the brink of disaster in order to achieve the most advantageous outcome. It occurs in international politics, foreign policy, labour relations. In contemporary setting of International Relations, it comprises military strategy involving the threats of the use of nuclear weapons along with high-stake litigation.

This manoeuvre of pushing a situation with the opponent to the brink using the media as a tool for proliferation succeeds by forcing the opponent to back down and make concessions. This might be achieved through diplomatic manoeuvres by creating the impression that one is willing to use extreme methods rather than concede. During the Cold War, the threat of nuclear force was often used as such an escalating measure.

This is also called the chicken game – as both the countries tend to move towards a head-on collision. Whoever blinks first in this nerve-game is called a chicken. If no one chickens out, a disaster awaits for both.

Pakistan, in comparison, has been following the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). This is a military strategy and national security policy in which a full-scale use of high-yield weapons of mass destruction by two or more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender (such as Pre-emptive nuclear strike and Second strike).

It is based on the theory of deterrence where the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy’s use of those same weapons. The strategy is a form of Nash equilibrium in which neither side, once armed, has any incentive to initiate a conflict or to disarm.

The Indian brinkmanship is perhaps an answer to Pakistan’s MAD doctrine which was adopted during the tenure of former military dictator, General Pervez Musharraf.

In order to understand the developing situation, I exclusively talked to General (retd) Talat Masood, one of the few moderate and broadminded commentators on military affairs.

When I asked General Talat if India has got Pakistan involved into brinkmanship, the veteran army officer responded in affirmative.

“Well I think you have raised a very interesting question. Unfortunately, yes India is doing it. They are trying brinkmanship by testing limits to see how much Pakistan could be lured into confrontation mode. But I think this Indian policy is immature and unwise,” he said.

General Talat, who has recently been involved in extensive backchannel efforts to help normalise tensions between Pakistan and India, believes that the new adventure by the new Indian government may sabotage all the good work done by former envoys, military and civilian leaders to help diffuse tensions.

Unfortunately, this chicken-game may bring more harm for Indians than for Pakistan as Indian government is pursuing an ambitious economic agenda. Moreover, India is also making efforts to win a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). But any misadventure may take Indians back to square-one.

“Yes, I believe this brinkmanship may harm Indians more. Indian regime is following a hyper-national

Asked how he sees the future developments, General Talat Masood said that Pakistan should prepare for the worst but it should work for diffusing the situation along with its allies in the world. “Nawaz Sharif’s policy is mature and balanced. He is not reacting and despite pressure from Pakistani hawkish politicians, the premier is conducting himself responsibly,” he added.

“We will have to see how long can Indians take this chicken-game. They can’t keep pushing Pakistan to the brink. It is childish to push a nuclear power to the edge. They are, in my view, trying to trap Pakistan into chaos and disharmony. The worst thing they are doing is to incite the military. Democratic government should not do it,” observed the veteran general.

Anti-Pakistan subversive designs

In October 2013, an investigation involving a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) case in India revealed a spy military intelligence unit, called the Technical Services Division (TSD), which had been created by former Indian Army Chief General VK Singh in 2008.

An official serving the unit openly revealed to the Hindustan Times that the unit’s main aim had been to combat “the rising trend of state-sponsored terrorism by the ISI” and the unit thus developed contacts across the Line of Control in a bid to infiltrate the inner circle of Hafiz Saeed, the maverick chief of the outlawed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).

A scrutiny of Army documents by the Hindustan Times confirmed that the spook unit had even been approved by the Director General Military Intelligence, Vice Chief and Chief of Army Staff of India. Among the operations it carried out, it was responsible for the Operation Rehbar 1, 2, 3 in Kashmir and Operation Deep Strike in Pakistan.

The unit while preparing, planning and executing special operations neutralising enemy efforts within the countries of interest by covert means also covered any tracks leading back to the organisation. The unit was later disbanded.

Pakistani officials also point to the Indian ‘RAW’s participation in instigating militancy in Pakistan by profusely providing financial and weapon support to Baloch militant groups. These include the Balochistan Liberation Army, Baloch Republican Army and Balochistan Liberation Front.

Although yet to prove at any public forum, the intelligence agencies claim these militant outfits as separatist groups are acting on behalf of external forces and, according to them, “evidence reveals they have been found to be harboured at various places and training camps which have been administered by RAW since 2006.

In January 2015, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif also presented a dossier to top US officials during a visit to Washington detailing explicit evidence of Indian secret agencies’ involvement in inciting and supporting militancy in Pakistan’s troubled regions using Afghan soil.

Some critics even go to the extent of saying that Indian agencies have not only been exporting terrorism to Pakistan, they have also been training militants in the Tibet region from where they force them to cause instability in China.

The US has always encouraged a working relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan in counter-terrorism. The MoU thus was always kept under the wary eye of the US which would monitor and tailor it to its full advantage.

With the NDS-ISI deal in place along with China’s full backing, a Sino-Afghan-Pak entente in regional security would certainly be detrimental to US interests in the region.

What’s next?

Keeping in view the situation in a holistic manner, one cannot jump to any conclusion where the chicken-game would take the nuclear-armed neighbours. However, the cautious approach adopted by premier Nawaz Sharif and the stakes of US and China in regional peace suggest that things would be back to normal soon with both the world powers playing a positive behind-the-scene role to help diffuse the situation.

However, if the situation is not handled in time, things may get out of hands of any side. While Indians are making hostile statements, extremist forces in Pakistan are getting a rebirth and anti-India sentiments are high. All political, religious and pro or anti military political and social outfits are joining anti-India bandwagon. Co-chairman PPP Asif Zardari, who once had a balanced approach to relation with India, has also joined anti-India chorus. Popular politicians like Imran Khan have already accused Premier Modi for inciting regional discord. If things are not handled properly, hawks on both sides of the line of control may push their respective governments into a naked war. But if it’s a war between India and Pakistan, it would not be conventional, rather it would be nuclear as in words of Chaudhry Shujaat, these (nukes) have not been made for celebrations only.

It is time for the world powers to jump in and help diffuse the situation which may lead into a nuclear conflict anytime. If it happens, God forbid, it may be a total elimination of the subcontinent.