Govt misses GDP growth target yet again

• With a downward trend in the agriculture, industrial and services sectors, NAC calculates GDP growth at 4.2pc against target of 5.1pc

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government has again missed the key economic growth targets, as meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) maintained on Monday a downward trend in the agriculture, industrial and services sectors while calculating the GDP growth at 4.2 percent as compared to the target of 5.1 percent for the current fiscal year.

The NAC meeting, chaired by the Statistics Division secretary came up with the provisional estimates for the current fiscal year (FY2014-15) for the GDP based upon the data of last six to nine months. Last week, International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected a GDP growth rate of 4.1 percent for the current fiscal year.

The committee estimated the agriculture growth during the current fiscal at 2.8 per cent as compared to the target of 3.3 per cent. Most revealing are the figures of important cash crops, wheat, rice and sugarcane which only recorded a growth of 0.2 percent. This has been balanced with the increase in other crops by 1 percent and 7.3 percent increase in the cotton ginning. The cotton yield was said to be estimated at 14 million bales this fiscal year as compared to 13.4 million bales last fiscal year.

Even though the major crops have shown decline in production, the statistics of livestock, forestry and fishing have surprisingly shown major improvement of 4.1 percent, 3.1 percent, 5.7 percent as compared to 2.7 percent, negative 6.7 percent and 0.9 percent respectively last fiscal year. In the official circles these three factors are considered as balancing out factors to come up with the desired figures.

Negating the official claims of improvement in electricity supply, the NAC has estimated industrial growth at 3.6 percent this fiscal as compared 4.4 percent growth of last fiscal year, while the target was 6.8 percent for the current fiscal year.

The poor management of the power and energy sectors have vanished away the good will the industrial sector had for the Sharif government. During the last two years, the government has not started any power project nor have any gas reservoirs been found.

The mining and quarrying recorded growth of 3.8 percent during the outgoing fiscal year against 1.6 percent achieved during the last fiscal. Manufacturing registered growth of 3.1 percent as compared to 4.4 percent last fiscal. The growth of large-scale manufacturing declined to 2.38 percent this fiscal as compared to growth of 4 percent last fiscal. The growth of small scale and household remained stable at 8.2 percent for the current fiscal. The electricity generation and gas distribution increased only by 1.9 percent as compared to 5.5 percent of last fiscal year.

The services sector maintained it upward growth by increasing 4.95 percent during the current fiscal as compared to growth of 4.37 percent last fiscal. However, the growth remained lowered as against the target of 5.2 percent set for the current fiscal year. In services sector, wholesale and retail trade growth decline to 3.38 percent against 3.98 percent last fiscal year.

The growth in transport, storage and communication declined to 4.21 percent as compared to 4.56 percent last fiscal while finance and insurance increased to 6.18 percent as compared to 4.18 percent last fiscal. Housing services (ownership of dwellings) remained stable at 4 percent, general government services increased to 9.44 percent as compared to 2.86 last fiscal and other private services declined to 5.94 percent as compared to 6.32 last fiscal year.