Disputes within a disputed election

Questions the Tribunal raises

Once again an unexpected twist in our power politics raises more questions than answers. And once again things are far, far from what they seem. Finally the N-league had got irritants out of the way – dharnas and jalsas had just become a thing of the past. Zarb-e-Azb had given the government a needed face-lift in the regional security paradigm; and things were improving with the Afghans and Americans. And, of course, the Chinese investment bonanza put more feathers in N’s cap.

Then the Election Tribunal shock. Up went the PTI’s graph again, after the Karachi by-election and cantonment board polls disappointment. But the N-league gambled on the Tribunal’s clean chit for Saad to knock at the Supreme Court. And now things are really complicated. It could provide him momentary relief, but its business is investigating the ‘free, fair and transparent’ part of the election. And while it’s another matter that the election staff’s bungling alone was found responsible for multiple vote casting, unsealed bags, counterfoil irregularities, missing forms, etc, Saad is banking on his innocence to reverse his disqualification.

And the Court could confirm his innocence, yet also agree with irregularities that dispute the final vote count. So, clean as Saad might well be, the Court would still have no option but to confirm the re-election as well. And, interestingly, such a course might technically reverse the disqualification, but there’s no chance of regaining the ministry or the national assembly seat. That means the re-election is inevitable, but that only complicates things further.

Up went the PTI’s graph again, after the Karachi by-election and cantonment board polls disappointment. But the N-league gambled on the Tribunal’s clean chit for Saad to knock at the Supreme Court

For all the noise PTI is making, the Tribunal’s call falls far short of its claims. There is, of course, much truth to claims about the dharna’s significance, etc, but it comes to nothing if NA-125 is lost again. The government will market Saad as the wronged party in this dispute. The sympathy pendulum could swing his way for a change.

And he has reasons to be confident. “My vote bank remains intact” was not an empty slogan. Again, this comes just after the cantonment polls, so there’s more reason for PTI to worry than the ruling party. Should Saad make it past the line again, PTI will have more than just egg on its face. Despite the one move forward it makes every now and then, its infighting and rash decisions ensure two steps back more often than not. And another NA-125 setback will not be forgotten anytime soon.

That, of course, is one way things could go. But things are hardly so straight forward for the N-league. One wicked down means clearly there was rigging in the election. And remember, this is just one of four, and there could be bigger surprises down the road. There’s also the possibility that once the irregularities are probed more deeply the ‘negligence’ and ‘oversight’ of returning and presiding officers will form a more definitive pattern. Surely there’s more than just unintended mismanagement behind the election staff going haywire everywhere. And if there is a pattern, and more wickets do fall, there’s no telling where the government will stand in the next couple of months.

Whether or not PTI can translate these small successes into electoral advantage is an entirely different matter. In terms of internal cohesion the N-league appears the strongest party at the moment

Remember the judicial commission is running its course also. Assume it finds irregularities of its own – which is plausible – and now see how unrealistic Imran’s rants of general elections soon look, even if this year is really too soon?

There is, however, a little certainty in all this uncertainty. Whichever way things go, it is now for the government to prove its legitimacy, and that in itself is more than a small victory for Imran. More importantly, there will definitely be a detailed investigation into the mismanagement. And if nothing else, negligence, corruption and incompetence will be, finally, rooted out of the system. And that is another point for Khan sb.

Whether or not PTI can translate these small successes into electoral advantage is an entirely different matter. In terms of internal cohesion the N-league appears the strongest party at the moment. PTI’s problems are increasing. PPP is in a bad way and getting worse. And the MQMs have their fair share of problems.

And finally there’s the people who, of course, will vote in this landmark poll. Just like politics and politicians since the ’13 election they, too, have changed. Some are not as easily impressed by slogans and rhetoric as in the feverish climax to the campaigning two years ago. That, among other things, could mean that the new winner will simply be the one who has disenfranchised fewer people since the last election, not won over more. The Election Tribunal’s decision, however much a novelty, has not made the road to the next election any clearer, it has set more hurdles in the way.