Pakistan will play a pivotal role strategically as an emerging nation in ten years
Masood Khan boasts as impressive a resume as any in the foreign service. He’s carried a spotless reputation, from the Third Secretary assignment in Beijing (1984-86) all the way to his current position, Director General of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad. His two most important career outings came just before ISS; ambassador to China and then the Permanent Representative in to the United Nations.
Currently Pakistan is in a strange position. On the one hand it has earned a good name, finally, for cracking down on terrorists. Long time misunderstandings with crucial allies like Afghanistan and America are, seemingly, being overcome. There has also been remarkable progress with China. Yet, on the other hand, there continue to be awkward spots. The situation in the Middle East, for example, brought Pakistan back in international news for the wrong reasons. And many still doubt Islamabad’s intentions regarding improving the security climate, not just locally but regionally.
DNA talked exclusively to Masood Khan to understand Pakistan’s position in the present regional context.
Question: Keeping in view your long stay in China as ambassador, do you think that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) route has been altered or are such rumours just part of a plan to make CPEC controversial like the Kalabagh Dam?
Masood Khan: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is not a single road or a rail link; it is a network. It has four integrated constituents: Gwadar Port, infrastructure, energy and industry. When completed, the Corridor will engirdle the entire territory of Pakistan, which will become a conduit and a gateway to multiple regions. All political parties in Pakistan understand the vital importance of the Corridor and they have had intensive contacts with the Chinese leadership. So dissensions would be replaced by consensus. In fact, there is already political consensus on the Corridor. The debate on its actualisation and implementation will continue. All voices ought to be heard and respected and incorporated. That said, all projects under the framework of the Corridor will not mature simultaneously. They will move at varying speeds, but some will give early harvest and dividends. The CPEC will remain a unifying, not a divisive, initiative.
Q: Since you are aware of the Pakistan-China discourse over CPEC, what terms have been set by Islamabad for crossing of Chinese goods through Pakistan? Do you think it was a good deal? Who is going to benefit more – China or Pakistan?
MK: It is not one deal. A raft of agreements and contracts have been singed that would be implemented in the coming fifteen years. The Corridor is not merely a transit and transportation passageway for Chinese goods and services. It is both a pathway and a destination. The Corridor with stimulate, at a massive scale, Pakistan’s infrastructure, energy and industrial development. All agreements that have been signed are based on the principle of mutual benefit, and I believe Pakistan is the primary beneficiary. Overtime, Pakistan’s territory will become a regional hub for investment, trade, and transportation. That will be a huge benefit.
A raft of agreements and contracts have been singed that would be implemented in the coming fifteen years. The Corridor is not merely a transit and transportation passageway for Chinese goods and services. It is both a pathway and a destination
Q: Do you think the joint efforts of Pakistan, US and China would help restore peace in Afghanistan? This question is significant as without a peaceful Afghanistan, CPEC and China’s other investments in Pakistan would face challenges from militant attacks.
MK: The Afghan government, under the leadership of President Ashraf Ghani, has taken ownership of the peace and reconciliation process. External actors can play only a supportive and facilitative role. Yes, all three — Pakistan, the US and China — can help and are helping. Each has its limitations too. But the agenda will be decided by Afghan political parties, factions and forces and the complex negotiations to reach solutions will be conducted by their representatives. The recently held informal Afghan-Taliban talks in Doha are a welcome step in that direction. The peace process has to remain Afghan-owned and Afghan-led.
Q: Keeping in view the situation in the Middle East, how do you evaluate tensions increasing between Saudi Arabia and Iran? Do you think the war in Yemen is a by-product of conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Yemen or is the Houthi uprising an indigenous phenomenon?
MK: The tensions in the Middle East region must cease so that an environment for economic cooperation and regional connectivity can be created. All said and done, the situation in and around Yemen is an internecine strife. Diplomatic efforts must be intensified to defuse these tensions and in this regard the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation must play an active role to build bridges. Yemen has had its own problems in the wake of the Arab Spring and the UN Security Council since 2012 has been trying to help President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government to bring about national reconciliation, but the Houthis throughout have remained disaffected and defiant. All have to be brought into the national mainstream.
Q: Do you see an immediate peace returning to Yemen or is the fire erupting in parts of the Middle East going to eat away Yemen and Saudi Arabia? Do you think the air strikes by Saudi Arabia are pre-emptive in nature or is Riyadh helping reinstall Hadi’s regime?
MK: If the parties to the conflict will go further down the military road, there would be more carnage, more bloodshed, more devastation. The situation could deteriorate and there is a risk of the Arab security system unravelling and collapsing. But if the concurrent track of diplomacy moves fast, peace could be restored. In this regard, the UN Security Council has a special obligation. Passing a resolution is not enough. It should deploy its best peacemaking assets to turn things around. President Hadi’s government is a legally constituted government and recognised as legitimate by the international community, especially the Security Council. So military operations do have the goal of restoring the ousted government. I hasten to add that all parties should move quickly from the war theatres to the negotiating table. The humanitarian pause must lead to an enduring ceasefire.
Our relations with China are at an all time high. A new beginning has been made in our ties with Afghanistan. Relations with the US and the European Union have improved. Because of the growing macroeconomic stability, overall economic outlook for Pakistan has brightened
Q: Do you think Pakistan’s foreign policy is being handled effectively?
MK: Yes, it is. Our relations with China are at an all time high. A new beginning has been made in our ties with Afghanistan. Relations with the US and the European Union have improved. Because of the growing macroeconomic stability, overall economic outlook for Pakistan has brightened. Moody’s and S&P have revised Pakistan’s ratings upward and positively. Prospects for fresh foreign direct investment inflows have enhanced. Incoming Chinese investments have also boosted international confidence in Pakistan’s economy. But we have to manage many risks, especially of terrorism, violent extremism and sectarian violence. There is no room for complacency.
Q: How do you see Pakistan ten years from now? Do you believe Pakistan is going to change for the better or will regional peace and civil-military relations face new challenges?
MK: Ten years from now, I see a strong Pakistan playing a pivotal role strategically as an emerging nation. By that time it should be in the league of G-20. Terrorism and violence should be a thing of the past. Demographically, Pakistan would have grown but so would its economy. By then, Pakistan would have embraced modern corporate culture and the people of Pakistan would be more educated and healthier enjoying higher standards of living.
Civilian and military institutions are cut from the same fabric — one people, one nation, one state. These are arms of our polity and have decided to work harmoniously and synergistically.
