Rekindling the Baloch insurgency

Something’s been cooking somewhere

After a small calm, Balochistan has once again come under media spotlight. However, the timing of the media focus returning to Balochistan is not only significant but its nature has also changed.

With landmark agreements signed between China and Pakistan for investment of $46 billion into Pakistan, the Balochistan problem is resurfacing — suggesting that something has been cooking elsewhere.

The sequence of the recent events also suggests that the brutal murder of the civil society activist Sabeen Mahmud has something to do with these developments.

This time around, the reason for return of media focus on Balochistan is not missing persons or the recovery of mutilated bodies of Baloch insurgents; rather the reason was blatant murder of 20 Punjabi labourers at the hands of militants. Later, perhaps, the strategy changed and an innocent young girl became the reason for the debate on Balochistan.

The brutal murder of Sabeen Mahmud is shocking and condemnable by all means. It reminds us that it is a crime not to become a party in a conflict between the state and anti-state forces, but it is also an offence to be used as a tool by any of the two.

Sabeen was such a brave and courageous girl. She not only questioned the social taboos but also raised her voice against inequality and injustice by state or non-state actors.

Before her brutal murder, Sabeen hosted controversial character Mama Qadeer in Karachi, and a debate is doing the rounds whether she was killed for becoming a tool for propagandist lobbies or she was killed to exploit her murder against the state of Pakistan?

Without going into the debate who about could have got Sabeen Mahmud killed, any sane element would agree that her brutal murder has only helped the cause of the militant forces bent upon making noise about Balochistan.

The brutal murder of Sabeen Mahmud is shocking and condemnable by all means. It reminds us that it is a crime not to become a party in a conflict between the state and anti-state forces, but it is also an offence to be used as a tool by any of the two

Neither the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) nor the Sindh Rangers could have benefitted from the killing of Sabeen. The brave girl, along with civil society activist Gibran, was rather helping the cause of the armed forces by arranging public demonstrations against militant and extremist elements like Maulana Abdul Aziz and banned organisations.

Her brutal murder has only strengthened the propaganda against the state of Pakistan, the armed forces and the liberal force of Pakistan. Her murder has strengthened the voices of dissent in Balochistan. It has also helped send a negative but fabricated message that Balochistan was not peaceful and people raising their voice in support of elements like Mama Qadeer would be silenced.

Yes, her murder is an effort to send a message to the Chinese investors that Balochistan is not stable and their investments are in danger in Pakistan.

However, Chinese President Xi Jinping rebuffed any such impression by sending a letter to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Thursday, reiterating his government’s resolve that Chinese investments would go ahead as planned and any effort to jeopardise them would be foiled. Whatever the case may be, the murder of Sabeen Mahmud is equally condemnable as is the failure of the state agencies to track down the murderers yet.

Moreover, this murder has greatly helped the Baloch separatists who were losing their narrative in and outside Balochistan. A recent report by Measac Research Centre (MRC), an Islamabad-based think-tank, also hinted at the dying voices of the Baloch separatists.

In central and northern Balochistan, the number of insurgents reportedly killed in encounters and arrested are the highest in many years. Besides, there are reports from across the border that the new regime of Afghanistan, after a green signal from the US, has closed at least six ‘Cultural Centres’ of India along Balochistan’s border.

It is also restricting movement across the border with Pakistan. The foreign support to the insurgency in Balochistan seems to have reduced.

The report also covered the movements and activities of the separatist leaders. Per the report, Dr Wahid Baloch, the spokesperson for separatists in Washington DC, has also changed his tone to reconciliation. Moreover, the grandson of Akbar Bugti, Brahumdagh Bugti, in a recent interview with The News, also hinted at reconciliation, stating that neither Balochistan chief minister nor anyone else from the government had contacted him for peace talks.

Bugti also slammed other Baloch leaders Harbiyar Marri and Khan of Kalat Suleman Dawood for betraying the Baloch people, claiming both of them were isolated and had no commitment towards the cause. MRC demanded of Pakistan to seek repatriation of Baloch insurgent-leaders from its so-called foreign friends comprising US, UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Germany and UAE.

Reportedly, Harbiyar Marri lives in London now and is less active in leading BLA, but his youngest brother Zamran Marri who lives in Marina, Dubai, has become the main leader. Gazain Marri is living in Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai, and spends his evenings in Ramada Hotel drinking and meeting visiting Marri insurgents, says the report.

The arrest of Marri brothers in the UAE and UK will immediately end the insurgency by Marris active from DMJ to Harnai, Kohlu and Quetta areas, the report added.

The report added that the attacks on gas and power infrastructure in Bugti area are led by two groups, Brahumdagh Bugti sitting in Switzerland “under MI6 support” and Talal Bugti’s son Shahzain Bugti.

The report said that late Talal Bugti had a front-man, Shams Kurd, who was involved in extortion and land grabbing in Quetta. Visits by PM and other officials to Talal Bugti only strengthen his criminal and anti-Pakistan activities, the report said and added that the political/administrative figures must keep distance from such tribal figures that support crime and insurgency, no matter how influential.

Dr Allah Nazar, the only prominent Baloch leading the insurgency in Sarawan and Jhalawan areas, is reportedly either very sick or dead, thus the insurgency in this area seems to have reduced, the report said.

Neither the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) nor the Sindh Rangers could have benefitted from the killing of Sabeen. The brave girl, along with civil society activist Gibran, was rather helping the cause of the armed forces by arranging public demonstrations against militant and extremist elements like Maulana Abdul Aziz and banned organisations

Desecration of old tombs in Mach and earlier in Wadh indicates presence of Takfiri-Salafites which ought to be tackled ruthlessly right now, the report added.

Chief Minister Dr Abdul Malik is being criticised by his own coalition partners for bad governance, corruption and installing officials from Makran in every government department irrespective of merit, seniority and qualification.

He is also regularly promoting late Gul Khan Nasir, who was known to be anti-Pakistan. Balochistan’s coalition government has failed to help QESCO and SSGC recover dues or provide protection to their infrastructure but he is quick to blame these corporations and OGDCL for not helping Balochistan.

Though the think-tank report reflects some ground realities in Balochistan, the timing of efforts to bring the province under media focus only reflects what is cooking against operationalisation of Gwadar Port.

So, it could be assessed that efforts are afoot to pre-empt Chinese investments. Perhaps behind-the-scenes efforts are being made to contain the increasing Chinese influence in the region.

The Chinese investments would also have been seen as a diplomatic blow to the US as the pledge made by China is almost eleven times greater than what US President Barack Obama promised during his India visit in January last.