Election bloodbath: as many as 145 MPs could lose seats

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Cost of winding-up offices of deposed and retiring MPs could exceed £18 million, IPSA forecast says

A 1997-style bloodbath of MPs is expected on May 7, after the expenses watchdog forecast as many as 145 MPs could lose their seats in a rout that will cost taxpayers £18m.

Winding up deposed and retiring MPs’ offices will cost the taxpayer as much £18.4 million, the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority, which regulates MPs’ costs, expects.

That is based on the announced retirement of 87 MPs and an assessment that expects as many as 145 could fail in their bid to be re-elected.

If it came to pass, it would be the biggest eviction of sitting MPs since the 1997 landslide, when 160 sitting Tories lost their seats to Tony Blair.

The numbers of MPs being ousted will be increased by the forecast collapse of Scottish Labour, which could see as many as 40 seats go to the SNP.

The forecasts have been made by IPSA as part of its budgeting process for the next year.

During a hearing in Parliament Marcial Boo, the Chief Executive, told MPs: “We have made a number of prudent assumptions about the turnover of MPs in particular, based on past history, on the number of MPs – there are 87 – who have already declared they are standing down, and so on.

“We have assumed also that a further 145 seats will change hands on election night. That is a high estimate; we are not expecting that degree of change, but, for the purposes of our budgeting, we would rather be slightly more prudent than have to come back for a supplementary estimate if things become tight.”

IPSA has forecast that winding up the offices of former MPs could cost as much as £13.3 million, according to a Freedom of Information request.

Former MPs are entitled to claim up to £57,000 in London and £53,950 in winding-up expenses for two months after losing office. It can be used to pay staff salaries, travel, remove office and second home furniture and shred confidential papers.

MPs who lose their seats also can claim “resettlement payments” worth one month’s salary for each year of service, up to six months – meaning they will be in line for up to £33,500.

In addition, IPSA expects the cost of redundancy payments for the staff of MPs standing down will be £2.1 million, while those who are defeated will be £3 million.