A shift in balance of power in Gulf

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Iran’s rise and America’s dissatisfaction with Saudi rulers

Nawaz Sharif did the right thing to visit Turkey while the options on the Saudi request are still open. He also needs to give due weight to the Iranian point of view presented by Foreign Minister Zarif. The government must also take note of the way the historic Iran deal is going to recalibrate the balance of power in the Middle East and Gulf.

For decades successive US administrations extended support to Arab dictators and Sheikhs as they were perceived to be the key factor in maintaining stability in the region. The voices raised in the Arab world for democracy were ignored by Washington. The Arab rulers suited both the US and Israel. There are strong indications that the US is reviewing the policy. It is once again being questioned in the western media why all the 19 hijackers on 9/11 happened to be Arabs, 15 belonging to Saudi Arabia alone and why the al Qaeda founder and the self-styled Caliph of Daesh came from the same region.

In his interview with Thomas Friedman, Obama has raised important questions never asked by Washington before. He has called on America’s Sunni Arab allies to give more importance to internal threats like the alienated youth who have imbibed “an ideology that is destructive and nihilistic” and are getting attracted to organisations like Daesh. He has also underlined the absence of “legitimate political outlets” for grievances in the Arab world. According to Obama “the biggest threats that they (Gulf Arab states) face may not be coming from Iran invading. It’s going to be from dissatisfaction inside their own countries. … That’s a tough conversation to have, but it’s one that we have to have.”

National interests demand that the PM advises the Saudis to opt for peace in Yemen. Pakistan should meanwhile prepare to import Iranian gas and take trade and economic relations with Tehran to a higher level after the lifting of the sanctions expected in the wake of the signing of the accord in June.