Time to think out of the box
Indian foreign secretary’s visit to Pakistan ended in no major breakthrough in bilateral relations between the two archrivals. But then this is what was expected of it. The good news, however, is that it was a step forward anyway — as something is always better in the stagnated relationship that is continuing between the two countries for ages now.
There were exaggerated expectations in some quarters, regarding progress in some less controversial areas along with announcement of some Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) during the visit. But those weren’t realised either. But it was like a good omen in itself that this level visit from India did take place and the talks have formally started again. It was, after all, the Indian side that put a stop to the talks in August last year, after Pakistani High Commissioner to India met Hurriyat leader Shabir Shah.
What actually made Modi’s government to stop the talks and what both countries have lost and gained by that decision are questions to which no satisfactory answers have been found so far. To some of the Indians, it was necessary so that Pakistan understood that country’s sensitivities and to choose between talks and belligerency once and for all; for the Pakistani side it was an exercise in futility and a wrong decision which only delayed progress towards the settlement of real contentious issues. But then what are the ‘real contentious issues’ between the two nuclear powers? And how could negotiations solve the deep rooted problems which are there since their inception?
Problems and lost opportunities
There is a plethora of territorial and political disputes which have held back both the South Asian big powers from living and interacting in a normal and friendly way. Kashmir tops them all. But then there are Sir Creek, Siachen, water, LoC and Working Boundary violations, sponsoring terrorism and interference in each other’s internal affairs, encircling each other and what not. But at the root of all this is the great historical and psychological suspicion which the leadership of both countries failed to offload over the course of time. And the result is now obvious; countless lost opportunities during the last seven decades and perpetual economic miseries for about 1.5 billion inhabitants living in both the countries.
What actually made Modi’s government to stop the talks and what both countries have lost and gained by that decision are questions to which no satisfactory answers have been found so far
One among those lost opportunities was the Indian government’s decision to say no to talks. Though hailed as better late than never, questions remain as to what prompted Narendra Modi to call off negotiations and then what compelled him to come to the negotiation table once again. Some quarters insist that trapped partially in his own pre-election rhetoric and gauging the winds blowing from here, Modi was advised not to talk to the weak civilians who were at loggerheads with the military generals on many issues at that time, and to hold the talks when the situation settles in Islamabad. There was no point in talking to a lame duck prime minister, he was told. Though there can be some other reasons too that can be cited in support of that decision, the fact of the matter is that it was a wrong decision based on short-sightedness, which achieved nothing except wasting time and further deteriorating an already bad situation.
Modi Doctrine
The mistake was belatedly realised when it started affecting the foreign policy objectives of Modi’s government, also known as Modi Doctrine. Loosely defined, it is based on establishing friendly relations with neighbouring states, engaging extended neighbouring countries and reaching out to major global powers. The intensity and seriousness of the initiative can be gauged from the proactive handling of foreign relations by the Modi government and the long list of visits that PM Modi and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj have undertaken so far, and the galaxy of foreign dignitaries that have descended there; from Putin and Obama to President Xi Jinping of China, from SAARC heads of state/government to foreign ministers of almost all the major powers, and so on.
But this policy, which Sushma Swaraj has given the name of ‘Fast Track Diplomacy’, is not just an adventure in isolation; it is part of a greater national policy which is based on making India one of the world’s leading industrial and trading powers. The ambition is grounded in Modi’s vision of economic development and regional connectivity. In that context, ignoring Pakistan for a long time was not viable; it would slow down development goals of the Modi government and hamper progress of its larger endeavours like Act East Policy (which is the next step in Narasimha Rao’s 1992 ‘Look East’ policy, designed for reaching out to ASEAN countries), Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation and a proactive Middle Eastern policy. Secondly, the Indian government seems encouraged by Chinese and US policies of cultivating regional peace and creating a friendly environment for commerce and trade in South Asia. This commonality of interests among regional and global powers seems to be a guiding force which is likely to nudge both India and Pakistan to opt for peaceful resolution of their long-standing disputes.
But for many Pakistanis, USA is an unreliable ally which is going to abandon Pakistan sooner rather than later. And India is an enemy which will stop at nothing short of annihilating Pakistan. USA’s current policies are perceived to be aimed at; a) weakening Pakistan, b) promoting India as a big regional power, and c) encircling China. This approach has certain historical elements of truth. But some of the things are undergoing dramatic change on the world scene. Power seems to be changing its meaning and military might is fast replacing economic power. USA is out on a search for new markets; so is China. For USA, China is now almost an indispensable economic and trade partner with a trade volume of US$ 521 billion per annum. Indian and Chinese trade volume is also growing by the day ($65 billion in 2013). This figure is likely to touch $150 billion mark in the next five years. So is Indo-American trade partnership, which has crossed $61 billion mark during the fiscal 2013-14.
Now, if this is the real picture on the ground it is somewhat difficult to see at everything like a zero-sum game and explain everything in purely militaristic terms. It is a fact that both USA and China are interested in a peaceful South Asia with both India and Pakistan moving towards peaceful normalisation of their relations; at least in less contentious areas where both the nations can move forward and to keep the more troubling disputes on the backburner for the time being. China has done so in case of both India and USA. The longstanding border disputes with India are there but both the countries are moving forward in other areas.
Pakistan’s predicament
Pakistan at the moment is going through a thorny phase in its foreign policy perspective where it has to make basic structural adjustments and make some difficult choices. Due to the terrorism problem, it has gone into international isolation and economic gridlock. Its recent endeavours, both on the internal and external fronts, are good signs for breaking that deadly cycle, which had left it out of the loop internationally and brought economic miseries to its people. But these will have to go a long way and won’t end with Operation Zarb-e-Azb and military courts. Peace in the region is now a requirement for everyone; Pakistan, India, China, USA and other regional and major global powers. In some cases, economic development is replacing geostrategic considerations. It is imperative for countries like Pakistan to make suitable adjustments in their national priorities list.
Ignoring Pakistan during Obama’s visit to India and non-mention of it in any way – good or bad – in the joint communiqué of Obama and Modi at the end of the visit is just a precursor of things to come. Keeping in view Pakistan’s past intransigent policy posture, it is likely that USA and other powers opt to leave it to its own devices. Some academics claim the process has already started. And Pakistan may experience a phase of isolation on the global scene. That will be bad. It will not only hurt Pakistan but also push the dream of regional peace even farther.
There is a plethora of territorial and political disputes which have held back both the South Asian big powers from living and interacting in a normal and friendly way
On the other hand Pakistan needs to listen to its friends; China, for example, which is reportedly encouraging it to make peace with India and address the terrorism and extremism problem more seriously. It is because China is also being affected by this problem; and its sensitivities about its mainland cannot be exaggerated. The government of Nawaz Sharif must take the ownership of the internal and external policies and assure the world that Pakistan means what it says; zero-tolerance for extremist ideologies and use of its soil by non-state actors against any other country.
It also needs no elaboration that peace between India and Pakistan is the need of the hour which the people of both countries deserve more than anything. Both India and Pakistan have lots of multi-dimensional opportunities provided they make peace with each other. If India can look and act eastward and has opening through Chabahar or can count on working more effectively through SAARC, Pakistan can capitalise on Central Asia and China for its economic prosperity. But for that both the countries have to put their own house is order and reprioritise their national agendas.
As for Pakistan, to have breakthrough in its relations with India it is necessary to start tackling the easy issues first and then move on to the troubled waters later on. Kashmir issue can be handled or addressed according to the 2006 Draft Formula, which was prepared by Musharraf’s government. That will be an easy thing for both civilian and military sides to agree to. The Indian side was also willing to accept it. But due to lack of political strength and change of government in Pakistan the Formula went into oblivion. But now seems to be the time that both the countries can move on those lines. Nawaz Sharif – along with majority of Pakistan’s political parties– is willing to have peace and good neighbourly relations with India. Narendra Modi has a strong political grip over there; he also has some grand objectives which cannot be realised unless there is peace with Pakistan. Such opportunities don’t come along the way every day; it is now for the leadership how to capitalise on them.
To start, both the countries can address the matters which were raised by foreign secretaries on both sides during the recent visit; taking visible steps by India regarding Pakistan’s allegations of promoting disturbance in FATA and Balochistan and its concern regarding Afghanistan; and Pakistan assuring India that Mumbai attack culprits will be brought to justice. As for non-state actors planning terror attacks inside India (and Kashmir), Indian leaders should read Pakistan’s lips; no distinction between good and bad terrorists; they should bear with us and wait for the results.
But for Pakistan, it is inherently internal cohesion and bridging the gulf between civilian and military leaderships that will translate into a coherent external policy. How this is handled and devised is a purely internal matter which no one else can do anything about.
Comments are closed.