Still time to reset course
Going by press conferences leading to the Nov30 march, it seems both PTI and PML-N have chosen to be at their provocative, belligerent best. Imran Khan will no doubt count on his biggest show of force yet. And the prime minister’s team has clearly decided to meet force with force; there will be very clear red lines, and crossing them will invite a strong backlash from the state. Both are also apparently counting on the other to trigger a clash, and subsequently winning the blame game. But as we have seen repeatedly, violence can quickly spiral out of control, and such outcomes should be avoided at all costs.
Since Imran is obviously not going to back down completely, it would have suited the government to offer him some room for manoeuvre, where a calculated compromise would have allowed him a graceful exit, despite his initial extreme position. But this seems unlikely because once the immediate pressure was over – and the dharna did stir the government in its early days – the Sharifs quickly reverted to the hubris that has defined their third time in power so far. Of late, accusations and counter accusations, especially Kh Saad Rafique’s threats, show the government is counting on state muscle for Nov30 and beyond.
Perhaps N-league leaders have still not realised the impact of one thing that Imran’s protests did achieve; the government may have survived, but the Sharifs have been considerably weakened. And even if they ride out the rest of the term, the next election will be a very different playing field than the previous one. And there is still time for Sharifs to adopt a more pragmatic counter strategy. If they reach out to PTI with a serious offer of negotiations, and help find middle ground from where both parties can pursue a more ‘official’ course, they will not only diffuse the crisis but also take credit for showing flexibility.
