The tale of the N-league’s third time in power – so far
When Tahirul Qadri and Ch Shujaat Hussain met in London towards the end of May they concluded that the PML-N government had become isolated and was vulnerable. They were not off the mark.
The people were unhappy. There was dissatisfaction among broad sections of population about the government’s performance. The power shortages continued and the same leaders who had vowed to end them within a couple of years now told the public that there was no way to overcome them in near future. The service charges of power and gas meanwhile multiplied despite claims that the recession had been controlled, prices of commodities of daily use remained beyond the purchasing power of the man in the street.
The parliamentary opposition was restive. After the formation of the government the prime minister had ignored parliament. Following in his footsteps cabinet members rarely attended parliamentary sessions. Arrogance characterised those in power. Months before the opposition in senate had held the meetings of the upper house outside the parliament in protest against the attitude of the interior minister.
The army was unhappy with the government for its haphazard moves to be in the driving seat in policy making, particularly the policy towards India. While the army desired a military operation against the TTP, the government insisted on talks. The way some of the cabinet members criticised the army on media was something those in the Khaki were not used to. In the dispute between GEO and the ISI, the government was seen to be on the side of the media house. The way the ISI chief was repeatedly accused on GEO for the attack on Hamid Mir made the ISI chief furious. The programmes of the channel were blocked all over the country through cable operators and suddenly there were processions in support of the army in a number of towns. The organisation of the ex-servicemen issued statements in support of the army that spread alarm.
The developments led Imran Khan, Qadri and Ch Shujaat Hussain to conclude that the days of the PML-N government were numbered and it was the right time to strike.
The trio’s mistake was that they saw things in isolation instead of their kaleidoscopic interaction. The government had been only fifteen months in power and while its political appeal had significantly eroded, it had by no means disappeared.
The opposition was opposed to the way the government was working. It was however unwilling to be instrumental in bringing the PTI and PAT in power. The army was furious over what it saw as infringement on its traditional turf
The opposition was opposed to the way the government was working. It was however unwilling to be instrumental in bringing the PTI and PAT in power. The army was furious over what it saw as infringement on its traditional turf. The army however had too many irons in the fire included fighting the terrorists in NW and Khyber agencies, confronting Indians troops on the eastern border, while worrying about the situation in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of foreign troops. The army itself needed political support rather than face protest marches for the restoration of democracy.
The march, the sit-in and the aggressive tactics of the protest leaders paralysed the government. Events following the meeting between the COAS and the leaders of the two sit-ins led many neutral observers also to express doubts about the survival of the system. Everything seemed to be touch and go.
There are differences, however, on what comprised the major factor that helped save the PML-N government. When pressed for an answer on a TV show Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain conceded that it was the parliament’s support for the government which ‘put the army on the defensive’.
When pressed similarly by an anchor person why the revolution failed to take place, Tahirul Qadri said this happened because a super power intervened to save the PML-N government. He was reluctant to explain precisely how the US had acted to provide succor to the beleaguered administration. Imran Khan has belatedly concluded that the army and judiciary would never go against the status quo. All the three factors mentioned by Ch Shujaat, Tahirul Qadri and Imran Khan helped the PML-N in its survival. The question now is what would be their response if a similar crisis was to develop again in days to come?
While the government has heaved a sigh of relief after the end of PAT’s sit-in, hoping that Imran Khan would soon follow suit thus defusing the crisis, many think it would be premature to think that the government is out of the doldrums. Tahirul Qadri will return next month to initiate another series of public gatherings and protests. He has plans to take taking part in all bye-elections. He has also expressed resolve to contest the next general elections whenever they are held.
Imran Khan has announced a big gathering at the end of November in Islamabad, He has further expressed resolve to hold two public meeting in different cities every week.
The government may again be facing a crisis. Will the parliament come to the rescue of the government once again? Will the army again revert to a ‘defensive’ mode? Will the US again use its influence in favour of the government?
Both the leaders would like to pave way for mid-term elections. The meetings and sit-ins would be aimed at preparing the public opinion for early polls. While making the preps both are waiting for the government to commit a major blunder to use it to kick off a fresh wave of protests. The resignation by the PTI legislators from the national assembly, followed by resignations of those from Punjab and Sind Assemblies, will lead to by-elections in a fairly large number of constituencies.
The government may again be facing a crisis. Will the parliament come to the rescue of the government once again? Will the army again revert to a ‘defensive’ mode? Will the US again use its influence in favour of the government?
The authoritarian tendencies which the PML-N leadership had temporarily controlled have again emerged providing grounds for conflict.
The ministers absent themselves from the national assembly sittings and do not attend the meetings of parliamentary subcommittees. This is generating another wave of protests from the opposition. Recently a federal minister was disallowed to speak in the senate as punishment
The government has taken decision to privatise the OGDC without taking the matter to the CCI. This has led to sharp reaction in the senate where it was pointed out that after the 18th amendment the federal government was bound to consult provinces before privatising certain categories of state controlled enterprises. PPP and ANP leaders warned the government that any attempt to bypass the provinces in this disregard would be resisted. The parties warned that they might withdraw their support to the government, or even confront it, in case of any crisis in days to come. The opposition members in the senate later staged a walk out.
The next day parliamentary leaders of the PPP, ANP and JI held a sit-in outside parliament in opposition to the nationalisation of OGDC and support for the workers of the enterprise who were subjected to brutal baton charge by the police a day earlier.
In case the government fails to tackle the issue of creating more provinces through statesmanship, this can not only divide the parliamentary parties but also lead some of them on the path of confrontation. The army may not remain on the ‘defensive’ if it finds the government isolated and the opposition up in arms against it.
The US may decide that the army is more helpful than the government in dealing with the terrorists. The countries where elected governments have no fear of removal by the army are the ones where public opinion is strongly against the military’s role in politics. In western countries this has become a part of the tradition now. In Turkey the civilian government has brought stability and economic prosperity which were absent during military rules. The people would not therefore allow the military to take over.
The PML-N government has no such achievement to its credit. Unless the people are with the government there is no guarantee of its survival.
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