And continued spillover in Pakistan
Much about the Islamic State is still difficult to understand. Gulf petro powerhouses’ obsession with Wahabi proxy militias to destabilise unfriendly governments is not new, but these chicken have never come home to roost quite like this. Saudi Arabia itself is feeling the heat, and UAE is partaking in the US-nato aerial blitzkrieg to keep caliphate mullahs from expanding any further. The west is also shocked about women (from the west) flocking to the jihad, predominantly in Mosul (Iraq) and Raqqa (Syria), even if some have had enough and want to return to Europe and North America (most preparing to give birth to jihadi offspring).
But the reaction back home, particularly from the TTP and their apologists, has been more predictable. The ‘caliphate’ was a timely development for Pakistan’s Taliban. Even as Zarb-e-Azb had them fleeing to Afghanistan, al Baghdadi’s victory gave them courage and hope. It is little surprise that they have accepted the caliphate even as their mentors, al Qaeda proper, continue to have reservations. Yet it is what the Taliban’s more mainstream supporters say that will be more important. They played no small part in pushing society as a whole, especially the rural periphery, even further to the right when talks with the Taliban were still being considered. Even the 50,000-plus killed by the TTP was no big deal for them as they continued to confuse the TTP’s posturing as proper shari’a. If they support the Taliban in their support for the Islamic State, indeed they will reveal yet more about themselves.
Pakistani security forces are well aware that our Taliban have been fighting in Syria since before the IS, when jabhat al-Nusra was the extremist organisation in the lead. Yet if anything has been done to halt this flow of fighters from South Asia to the Levant, it has not made the headlines. And it has also not discouraged the Taliban. No doubt the army realises that Zarb-e-Azb is far wider in scope than NW. The previous narrative, that it will expand to cover the length and breadth of the country, too, might not be enough anymore. This fight is without borders. But first, of course, the house must be put in order. Architects of both the US led effort in Arabia and the NW operation must watch each other’s advances very carefully.
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