The unending protests

What’s the endgame? Who will it benefit?

True to their words, Imran Khan (IK) and Allama Tahirul Qadri (TuQ) made history by leading the marches of thousands from Lahore to Islamabad and further advancing to stage sit-ins in the Red Zone. They have also earned the dubious distinction of being the first to force their entry into the Parliament House compound, Secretariat building, Pakistan Television building, beating the police and taking pride in it. The same history will deliberate on what the two individuals, their followers, our political system and our nation gained or lost.

Also true to their words, the star-struck charged crowds remained peaceful and in a festive mood for the first two weeks. The two leaders addressed their followers at frequent intervals from the roof of their containers in theatrical styles — rain or shine. In much delayed efforts to negotiate compromise, the government ministers bent backwards, begged, ate their words and traversed an extra mile to appease the rebels. They kept fumbling and retreating further at each step. Both IK and TuQ firmly held their grounds (not too distant from each other), as they smelled blood and grew increasingly hostile and taunting. After two weeks of waiting and cajoling, the war bugles for marching on were sounded.

A sort of history was made on the other side too. Eleven of the twelve political parties with representation in the Parliament stood beside the government to combat the assault and save democracy. This was an unprecedented and rare show of consensus among divergent viewpoints and interests in our highly polarised democracy. The solidarity, however, appeared impotent against the belligerence of the thousands of protesters gathered by a novice political party and a religious group with no political background.

This has exposed the inherent weakness of the political acumen of our traditional politicians, their reach and influence among the masses. The seasoned political leaders with proven credentials of personal sacrifices, hardships, long struggles for democracy against military dictators, looked helpless as the entrance to the Parliament and Secretariat were virtually under siege of the protesters. All their fiery speeches, their unity and negotiation skills have so far failed to politically subdue the inexperienced and relatively late entrants on the political scene. All mediation efforts have met dead ends.

This is revolution Pakistani style, where national representation of labourers, farmers, technocrats, intellectuals, trade unions, business and ordinary people is blatantly missing. It is led by wealthy people driving in caravans of luxury cars with access to normal comforts of life. One leader is a cricketer-turned-playboy-turned-politician and a-man-in-a-hurry, too impatient to wait for his turn and desperately looking for a short-cut to the top.

The other is a preacher, who magically descends from Canada with immaculate preparations, vast resources and a comprehensive agenda. Both couldn’t be different in person, background and in their political philosophy. Yet, they have discovered and proclaimed a bond of brotherhood. Both appear obsessed with an illusion of being ordained divine rights to bring ‘freedom’ and ‘revolution’ to our hapless people.

Both embarked simultaneously from Lahore to Islamabad with an army of committed crowds of tens of thousands on their tails and held an entire nation of 1p0 million people hostage. The state functions were crippled, state institutions became subjects of suspicion and ridicule and state visits of foreign heads were cancelled. The sole mission was declared to be to humiliate and bring the government to its knees and to force it to submit to their charter of demands. The constitution, the courts, the existing political system and the Parliament be damned.

What must be recognised is that the PAT movement originated from a religious organisation and transformed itself into a political force. So far, the group has not exhibited its electability, though it has proved its street power twice by successfully bringing the Capital to a virtual standstill. Their workers (many among them women, children and infants) are from working classes, mostly from Punjab. They are motivated, well organised and not averse to defend themselves with violence. Their leader is well informed, aggressive, fearless, resourceful and a master strategist.

The Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI) was infused a new life in October 2011 after years in wilderness when it successfully held a massive gathering in Lahore, the heart of the PML-N stronghold. It brought in a new generation of enthusiastic young people and women of the middle and lower classes that had traditionally stayed aloof from street politics. The source of attraction was the charisma of Imran Khan, who had established his integrity as a star and a philanthropist. The spectacular surge in his following convinced IK of his certain victory across the board in the 2013 elections.

However, his party failed to achieve a majority in the National Assembly. It secured the control of one province (KPK), role of Opposition in the Punjab Assembly and a substantial representation in the National Assembly. For a first time entrant, it was a tremendous success. But for Imran Khan, it was not. He was disappointed, as he wanted it all. He immediately geared up to throw a challenge.

It is now common knowledge that IK and TuQ got together in London where they allegedly developed a coordination in their plans for the long march and dharnas. This appears to be a marriage of convenience, as their paths and their ambitions run parallel and are unlikely to converge. IK has emerged as a popular national leader and has stakes in the system. He has made his future in Pakistan and has a lot to lose if his bid to force the government out by agitation fails or if he is unable to extract meaningful concessions. Conversely, TUQ is an outsider. The only way he could accelerate his ascent on the power ladder can be through disruption of the system. He has little to lose and can take the next flight home at any time, to live and fight another day.

The deadlock will end sooner or later with some formula for an honourable exit and this episode will eventually conclude, as all events do. The reverberations will however leave a lasting impact on the national scene and will not be without repercussions, as the monumental financial impact caused by this disturbance will be calculated. An overhaul of the system will be inevitable and the multiple fall-outs from this adventure will have to be carefully handled for least damage to the nation.

The overwhelming domination of the Punjabi population (barring a relatively smaller presence from KP in IK’s camp) among the protesters in both contingents has imparted a dangerous impression of the alienation of smaller provinces from national issues. Both the leaders, aspiring for the highest office in the country, ignored the necessity to include equitable representation from all provinces in this campaign that may leave disastrous consequences.

The wisdom of the democrat Imran Khan joining with TuQ that has an agenda of demolishing the system will raise questions on his judgment. His inability to keep the entire party together at critical junctures and his proclamations without thinking through and then backtracking will raise serious doubts on his leadership. Only time will tell if the gamble that IK has played will strengthen the PTI or he will have to resurrect it from ashes. Politics is much more serious than a game of cricket or to raise funds for a hospital or a university.