What can’t be, yet is, said
This revolution has been a complicated affair for print media. Khan sahib’s repeated speeches and shifting demands have disturbed deadlines and editorials for a prolonged period of time, for one thing. ‘Stale’ news looks much worse in the electronic age. But it’s managing information flow that is more knotty. When opposing parties use broadly the same lines in different fashions for a long time, journos are forced to decipher ‘body language’, etc, to create and dissect fresh news. And in this regard the march on the capital has been quite revealing, even though the contours of a likely endgame remain difficult to determine, at least till the time of writing (Friday night).
But first, it is strange that the series of coincidences that marked the march have not been explained by Khan or Qadri, nor analysed much on primetime TV. Both have legitimate and established demands. Granted. But despite being different in many ways both converged on the small decisions that mattered; same day drive to Islamabad, same day march on the red zone, same core demand of Nawaz’s resignation, same threats to the bureaucracy. And how both, and their jiyalas, respond to questions about somebody pulling strings from somewhere is hardly breaking news. Both seem convinced victory is just around the corner, or so they posture, realising well how they’d be politically dead if it’s not.
Speaking of posturing, Nawaz and his inner circle have been busy with posturing of their own over the last year, some too obvious to miss. No better example than its positions on most things military.
And speaking of posturing, Nawaz and his inner circle have been busy with posturing of their own over the last year, some too obvious to miss. No better example than its positions on most things military. Like the initial hide-and-seek about fighting or talking to the Taliban, having to be arm-twisted into accepting Zarb e Azb even after the Karachi airport attack. And, of course, their position on Musharraf. Everybody knew what Saad Rafique’s ‘process of law’ and ‘superiority of constitution’ rhetoric meant when the government went after the general. Of course it would infuriate the military. Show the boys their real place, etc. But no matter how much he glossed it in legal jargon, N went too far. He meant, in fact, to ‘indicate’ who will be boss this time. The military, on the other hand, could tell after the North Waziristan operation disagreement that he can back down when confronted. And both knew this failing, and N’s obsession with demeaning the military, would be the game-changer should push come to shove.
The Model Town incident was also a very clear message, at least it was meant to be. The Sharifs will protect their turf, and employ brutal pre-emptive strikes when they suspect outside forces ganging up against them. But the demeanour had changed by the time N addressed the nation just before the twin marches. He looked despondent. His body language betrayed a kind of behind-the-scenes pressure; the flip side of the force seemingly pushing on Khan and Qadri. Then there was more posturing. Ch Nisar forbade protesters from entering the red zone, yet did nothing when they did. Also, even as the ruling party maintained an aggressive outlook on the media, it has steadily given space, agreeing to some of Khan’s earlier demands, even though he has long since moved on and does not budge from the resignation issue. Kh Asif went so far as to endorse Khurshid Shah’s ice-breaker, that Khan sb move his resignation demand from one to six in his list. But no dice.
This puts the Marvi Memons of the party in a difficult position. Their body language, along with normal language, has been attacking, which means defending the party position. She even called economic indicators “superb” while continuing with “absolutely unacceptable” regarding the resignation. That means the ruling party isn’t going to budge either, which means neither side will blink until one is made to; which causes more speculation and more news. And while Marvi, having done a few rounds around political parties, might represent the anxiety of those who can’t springboard from the N league to another, others like Abid Sher Ali have been no less lucid. They might embarrass themselves by not having answers to some straight forward questions, but the body language is unmistakeable. They will not give way.
The Model Town incident was also a very clear message, at least it was meant to be. The Sharifs will protect their turf, and employ brutal pre-emptive strikes when they suspect outside forces ganging up against them.
But there’s Imran, promising not to leave without the resignation. Ditto for Qadri. The crowd is sticking, too. Javed Hashmi takes the mike when it rains, another powerful message. Abrar ul Haq keeps everybody charged. Qadri’s thousands are far more disciplined. And even with qawalis and prayers in place of singing and dancing, his followers are not moving an inch. Then there is chatter that the ‘third umpire’ came out straight after a recent huddle with some ministers. Unless there is an end to the test match by Saturday, says the grapevine, the umpire will ‘raise his finger’. That’s just when Imran says he feels it in his heart that Saturday will be special. Qadri says Saturday will bring deliverance.
By all indications, the final call will have to come from the military. That much needs little posturing from any side. As the endgame takes shape, the trailers and camps outside parliament seem more confident than power brokers inside it. Maybe that is because of the posturing with the military back in the day when the election hangover had not subsided. And now that push has come to shove, perhaps N is afraid game-changer predictions might come true. But as far as appearances go, the revolutions will go ahead till Nawaz goes, Nawaz will not step down voluntarily, and the military would like the politicians to settle things among themselves.
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